The Problem of Excess Deaths

I don’t rule out at all the possibility that the virus could have cracked people’s immunity after its acute phase in ways that add up to excess deaths. But I hope you realize just how rare the case of the little girl you mentioned truly is. For virtually all healthy kids, a COVID infection was the same as any cold. Actually for a good chunk of them it was completely asymptomatic. I’ve got 4 school aged children and having moved states mid pandemic, and moved schools prior to it, have a huge network of acquaintances among parents of school aged children, probably 100+. Not a single one of them has had any appreciable symptoms from COVID in their own child or heard of anyone else who has. It’s incredibly rare.

About long COVID in anyone else, please consider this:

No it’s not a medial study but it references one, and sounds embarrassed at the unavoidable conclusions:

Roberts has spent the past decade studying the link between physical health and mental health. She knows that psychology can play a role in almost any illness; a few years ago, she discovered a link between PTSD and ovarian cancer. On paper, the new finding was no different from those in her previous studies, but this time she added a disclaimer to her article. “Our results should not be misinterpreted as supporting a hypothesis that post–COVID-19 conditions are psychosomatic,” she wrote.

Her worries were not unfounded. The study was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association: Psychiatry on Sep. 7 of last year. A few days later, Jeremy Redfern, a member of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration, tweeted out the article and put “long COVID” in scare quotes. In the replies, people referred to long COVID as a “self-fulfilling prophecy” and “symptom of liberalism.”

Roberts had meant to convey with the disclaimer that long COVID is not a fake condition, and that patients experiencing it are not duping doctors or themselves (as Redfern implied they were). In doing so, however, she used the word “psychosomatic” to mean “fake.” But that’s not how “psychosomatic” is used in medicine, and she now has mixed feelings about the disclaimer. “The actual definition of psychosomatic is a connection between your psycheand your soma,” Roberts says—that is, your mind and your body. That connection can look like so-called “hysterical” blindness, where a traumatic experience causes someone to lose their sight without any apparent damage to their visual system, or like the well-known (and uncontroversial) relationship between stress and heart disease. Based on that technical definition, Roberts says what she’s showing in the long COVID study “is actually psychosomatic.”

No serious doctor would deny that the mind and body are intimately linked—many would even argue that it is meaningless to differentiate between the two, since the mind is really nothing more than the brain. But it wasn’t just the right-wing Floridians looking to minimize long COVID who responded to her results. Pieces by mainstream journalists have suggested that linking depression and long COVID is tantamount to accusing all long COVID sufferers of being malingerers.

As of yet, there is no conclusive proof that stress or mental illness can contribute to long COVID. But since Roberts’ paper, several other studies have foundassociations between post-COVID symptoms and mental illnesses like depression. None of this research proves that mental illness plays a role in causing long COVID—it might not play any direct role at all—but some experts see the connection as a promising path toward understanding, and treating, the condition. As long as the idea that mental illness is somehow less “real” than physical illness persists, however, investigating that link remains a risky proposition—both for the researchers, who might expose themselves to intense online criticism, and for the patients, who could see such studies weaponized against them.

“Being ‘real’ or not is a very false dichotomy,” says Tracy Vannorsdall, associate professor in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Johns Hopkins. “And it doesn’t do our patients, or our scientific thinking, any good.”

There’s a great deal of work to be done before scientists know for sure whether mental illness contributes to long COVID. The studies to date are imperfect—many of them depend on electronic health records, which can give a skewed view of patients, especially given how often mental illnesses are misdiagnosed. And two illnesses can be statistically related without one causing the other.

Even if scientists do eventually discover that diseases like anxiety and depression can cause—or exacerbate—long COVID, that won’t imply that one has to be mentally ill to develop the disease. Though the physical dimensions of long COVID are not fully understood, their presence in some people is incontrovertible: People with long COVID are more likely to have SARS-CoV-2 spike protein circulating in their bloodstreams after recovering from the acute phase of the illness, and they also tend to show differences in their immune systems.

But physical and psychological causes are not mutually exclusive. Long COVID may really be a collection of different illnesses, each of which comes about in its own particular way, and psychological factors might be more important in some of those illnesses than in others. And there is no reason why the physical and the mental couldn’t both contribute. “I could have bad asthma, and I could have bad anxiety, and both could be contributing to my shortness of breath,” says Adam Gaffney, a Harvard pulmonologist who has written about the possibility of psychological contributions to long COVID. “The fact that I have severe anxiety doesn’t mean I don’t also have asthma.”

With these caveats in mind, many scientists and clinicians, including Gaffney, think the putative link between mental illness and long COVID is worthy of further investigation, both because of the studies that have come out so far and because the idea has what scientists call “face validity”: It just makes sense. Mental illnesses like depression and anxiety are associated with a higher risk of heart disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s, among numerous other conditions, and long COVID itself often involves psychiatric symptoms. And yet no one would propose that a heart attack survivor was faking their illness.

Medically speaking, there’s nothing intrinsically surprising about those relationships. The physical underpinnings of conditions like depression remain obscure. But if everything, at bottom, is physical—and scientific practice insists that it is—then so too is depression, even if we don’t yet understand how, exactly, it happens in the brain.

Mental illness is, however, sometimes treated as if it’s less a disease of the body and more an affliction of the immaterial soul. “There’s such a duality in how we think about mental health and physical health, as though one’s real and one’s not,” says Via Strong, a psychologist at MedStar National Rehabilitation Hospital who works with long COVID patients. But “both are in your body, and both are real”—and if one shifts, so can the other.

From where the mind sits within your skull, it exerts a powerful influence over the rest of your body. The brain puppeteers the hormone system, which disseminates chemical signals through the bloodstream, and those chemicals can spark a wide variety of biological responses. In brief moments of upset, a rush of the hormone cortisol through the bloodstream can increase one’s heart rate, slow digestion, and suppress the immune system. Basic bodily processes are put on pause; all available resources are devoted to the situation at hand.

In chronic stress, however, the brain commands the adrenal glands, a pair of conical organs that sit atop the kidneys, to release cortisol for far longer than they would typically. Over time, the hormonal systemcan start to malfunction, and the immune system goes haywire in response: Some immune cells stop working as effectively, and overall levels of inflammation may rise. The relationships here are complex—just as depression may cause inflammation, so too does inflammation raise one’s risk of depression. But it’s clear that depressed people tend to experience more inflammation, and inflammation may play a role in long COVID.

Akiko Iwasaki, a Yale immunologist, says she isn’t yet convinced that mental illness can contribute to long COVID. If it does, however, she says that the tight interrelation between the body’s hormonal and immune systems may offer a credible explanation. There is already some evidence of hormonal dysfunction in long COVID: In one study, Iwasaki and her colleagues found that long COVID patients had lower cortisol levels than healthy controls.

Mental illness wreaks its havoc on the body in indirect ways, too: It changes how people behave, from the quality of their sleep to the foods they choose to eat to the frequency of their social engagements. Michael Irwin, a professor of psychiatry at UCLA who studies the relationship between sleep and the immune system, thinks insomnia could potentially precipitate long COVID. He and his colleagues have found that people with insomnia tend to see their acute COVID symptoms linger longer, and two recent studies from other research groups have reported an association between sleep problems and long COVID.

This is hardly surprising. Irwin has helped establish that poor sleep can knock the immune system out of whack and trigger inflammation over the course of his decades-long career. And the link between stress and heart disease has been studied for more than half a century—baby boomers grew up hearing about the idea that emotional challenges can cause bodily changes.

Nor does any of it seem particularly controversial. Hormone levels and lack of sleep are so concrete—so indisputably real—as to make for dry reading. Jaime Seltzer, an advocate for people with chronic illnesses and the director of scientific and medical outreach for the organization ME Action, is generally skeptical of research on long COVID and mental illness. But she is willing to entertain discussions about the physical effects of depression and anxiety. “There are arguments that people can make for embodied reasons why this is happening, physiologically,” she says.

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It goes on in this vein. I think the clues about overproduction of spike protein in long COVID patients is troubling as that symptom could in theory result from a lack of clearance of the mRNA encoding of spike. So there is a plausible action mechanism which ties to the vaccine.

In any case, to start untangling this, as there’s so many possibly confounding variables, one would need to tally up the vaccination status among the excess deaths and compare it to the breakdown in the respective age bracket. Hell even for Long COVID sufferers the same should be done. As it is we’re merely comparing anecdotes and in my own n=1 world of personal anecdotes, it’s only wealthy, neurotic, progressive white women I know who complain of suffering from long COVID and they were all triple boosted.

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In case you have missed this the vaccines are contaminated with a lot of luttle bits from double stranded DNA plasmids used as a template for the modRNA, including the SV40 oncogene promotor region. … Look on Kevin McKernan’s and Phillip Buckhaults twitter feed (also look them up on pubmed)

Yes I realize that kids sometimes have covid and are totally asymptomatic. For example, of the kids in my family, one had a 6-hour cold and the other one vomited once, then it was over. We tested them because my wife and I tested positive. Unless we had tested ourselves, we probably would not know that the kids had Covid.

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The Challenger fuckup resulted in actual deaths. We do not see those deaths materialize from the vaccine. In fact, all cause mortality is lower in 2022/23 than in 2020/21.

The technology used has no safety record

The decision to put out the vaccine was made under a careful risk reward consideration. But it had been researched for quite some time even prior to covid, but yes mostly in animal models.

I’m just mentioning a few among many factors and circumstances whose confluence could conceivably add up to a monumental fuck-up

Before testing the first nuke, critics warned that it could ignite the atmosphere. They were wrong of course because even the most pessimistic calculations showed the nuclear fusion process quickly fizzling out. The same way our animals models and prior human trials showed the safety profile of the mRNA technology.

No one here is talking about hare brained conspiracy theories but yourself.

Being antivaxx is a good proxy for being a conspiracy theorist in general.

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I actually don’t know anything at all about that. Can you point me to something concrete? I’m no longer obsessed enough with the issue to hunt for clues deep in Twitter threads :slight_smile: Only if you’ve got something handy, of course.

Could you pls provide a link for the Twitter feed you mentioned?

@LaraPo

McKernan’s substack might be better

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I accept that there are some issues with one or more of the Covid vaccines around Cardiac Myopathy, but Occams Razor points to any increase in excess deaths being at least partially as a result of increased senescence.

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[quote=“Virilius, post:127, topic:10204”]
The Challenger fuckup resulted in actual deaths. We do not see those deaths materialize from the vaccine. In fact, all cause mortality is lower in 2022/23 than in 2020/21. [/quote]

You’re completely missing the point. Everything I said in that paragraph was in the subjunctive, so to speak. It was giving you a plausible theory of reality that people can hold without any reference to the sort of bat-shit-craziness you reflexively impute to anyone who has misgivings about the COVID-19 vaccines. I’m not even claiming anywhere that the vaccines have caused an appreciable share of the excess deaths, because I don’t know— merely that it’s possible they have, and I can see various ways through which such a thing could be the case. And only one way to start getting at the bottom of it: to wit, some actuarial forensics about the vaccination status associated with the excess deaths.

If all cause mortality is lower in 2022-2023 than in 2020-2021 that does nothing to rule out harm from the vaccines. In 2020-2021 we had the acute phase of the pandemic and of course I’d expect the peak of excess deaths. The problem here is, why are excess deaths in 2022-2023 greater than the five year average before 2020. In the Challenger fuckup it’s child’s play to trace causality: people are on the spaceship, the spaceship blows up, that’s why the people on board died that day. Here we are talking about a virus that can have lingering long term effects and a vaccine that can also have lingering long term effects, and a huge overlap between the vaccinated and the infected. Not so easy to tease out causality retrospectively. But if a credible analysis came out showing that the proportion of the vaccinated vs unvaccinated among the excess deaths in each country is statistically insignificantly different to that of each age bracket in the general population, then I’ll take a haircut from Occam’s Razor and assume the vaccines probably don’t have anything to do with it. I don’t see any forthcoming readiness to undertake such analysis, only invective at those who are even interested in the question.

That may be so, on the supply side, but on the demand side, only I as an individual can decide if the risk reward calculus works for me. I can’t believe in the year 2023 the concept of bodily autonomy holds so little universal purchase among the enlightened. I’m not even going to engage with @AnUser because his version of debate is to peremptorily forbid others from using terms he dislikes, on the pain of name calling. But since we’ve come to such a pass that only ChatGPT can be trusted as a fair arbiter, I asked it. And you don’t have to be a trial lawyer to see plenty of room for fuckup in the answers. These are the same people trolling fellow corpus mentis adults for taking sub clinical doses of azithromycin and doxycycline — run of the mill antibiotics — as if they were playing Russian roulette, somehow having nothing but scorn and derision towards someone reluctant to undertake a therapy that’s based on gene therapy mechanisms.

That’s a proxy in YOUR head, just like antivaxx is an invective in YOUR head. There’s no such thing out there in the wild. Something of a cousin to Latinix. Instead of defaulting to a lazy placeholder for the type of person you despise so much as to not even bother understanding their worldview, how about you try to paraphrase their beliefs in earnest? You may end up in fewer Quixotic fights against wind mills.

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I forgot to mention in the trial Pfizer used a different production processwithout the use of plasmids, to manufacture the modified mrna (process 1) except for a small number of trial participants which got the mass produced (process 2 made with the plasmid templates)

Also in disclosing the production process to the authorities Pfizer removed the sv40 promotor region from the plasmid map they handed over…(Mckernan explains how plasmid mapping is done with an automated tool and everything gets mapped, when something is missing someone had to manually delete the entry)

I can see various ways how magic unicorns can cause cancer too. Just because I can’t prove it today doesn’t mean it’s not true!

And only one way to start getting at the bottom of it: to wit, some actuarial forensics about the vaccination status associated with the excess deaths.

70% of the US has received at least one vaccine shot, yet excess mortality remains lower in 2022/23 compared to 2020/21 which goes especially for cardiovascular deaths which are even lower than would be expected. Unless antivaxxers have magically become less suscetible to death, logic would dictate that the vaccine is safe.

The problem here is, why are excess deaths in 2022-2023 greater than the five year average before 2020.

There are various reasons with covid still being a leading cause. Susceptible people still die from it at significant numbers because vaccnes alone cannot guarantee 100% protection.

But if a credible analysis came out showing that the proportion of the vaccinated vs unvaccinated among the excess deaths in each country is statistically insignificant to that of each age bracket in the general population, then I’ll take a haircut from Occam’s Razor and assume the vaccines probably don’t have anything to do with it.

A somewhat fitting proxy would be excess deaths by political leaning.

We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post- vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available.

Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic | NBER

Now of course you could argue that the government is purposely killing Republican voters, but how would they achieve this without the vaccine?

I can’t believe in the year 2023 the concept of bodily autonomy holds so little universal purchase among the enlightened.

You can choose not to take the vaccine just like other people and choose not to be around you. I don’t see bodily autonomy being violated.

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Death from cardiovascular causes were lower than expected in 2022, as can be seen in The Problem of Excess Deaths - #10 by Virilius

Not age stratified, so meaningless. Vaccine myocarditis is mainly a problem for young men whereas most cardiovascular deaths are in the elderly (many of whom died from covid instead a bit earlier)

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From the Israeli observational studies it did not seem to cause a single death in that age group.

I rest my case. You’ve got it all figured out.

Since you seemingly do not care about rational arguments nor data, it appears further discussion is pointless.

I am not saying there were a material number of deaths from this.

Myocarditis is never mild and always destroys some cardiac tissue and increases the chances of future arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death

Here in the Netherlands, just this past month 3 pro cyclists had to stop due to cardiac issues (heart attack, myocarditis, unspecified cardiac problems) and 1 died due to cardiac issues as well as one football player that suddenly collapsed during the game and had to be reanimated…

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People with mild myocarditis may only need rest and medication.

https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/patient-information/conditions-treated-a-to-z/myocarditis

For many people with mild cases, myocarditis usually improves on its own or with medication. With rest and antibiotics to fight the infection, you may experience a complete recovery.

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For 10 years of follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 762 (25.5%). Even in young adult patients with non-complicated phenotypes, excess mortality remained higher compared to the general population.

(And against most viral causes of myocarditis we develop immunity but with the vaccines some people are on shot 6 or 7 already even)