The rate in people aged 55–65 (6/1000) is “only” 4 times the rate in people aged 25–35 (1.5/1000). I thought it would be 10x or even 100x:
It’s actually increasing in young people (30–39yo) while it’s decreasing in people aged 70+ and plateauing in other groups. The rate in people aged 30–39 in 2019 was almost identical to the rate in people aged 50–59 in 1998!
Well, old smallpox vaccines were initially used to help with monkeypox (mpox) when it started surging
But Jynneos is a new vaccine dedicated to mpox (and also works against smallpox). I see little harm in taking this and probably much easier to get this than some old smallpox vaccine.
CDC advisers recommend lowering the age for RSV shots to 50-59 years
The CDC currently recommends the vaccine for adults age 75 and older and at-risk adults ages 60 to 74.
“What’s swaying me is there clearly are people in that 50 to 59 years age group, for example lung transplant patients, …that would clearly benefit from having access to this vaccine,” Jane Zucker, one of the voting members of the panel, said ahead of the vote.
If the recommendation is adopted by the CDC, it would make about 30% of U.S. adults in that age group eligible for the RSV vaccine, according to panelist Michael Melgar.
This chart simply does not show that. While the rates are going up for all age groups, they are still relatively low in the 40’s.
As to your surprise that it’s not as great magnitude of risk as your expectations…… I don’t really know what to say— if 400% greater risk seems low to you.
By the way, that’s why the age for recommended vaccination has been decreased all over the world over the past decades:
UK: 70+ in 2013 => 65+ in 2023 => 60+ in 2025 (progressively over the next few years)
US: 60+ in 2006 => 50+ in 2011
Canada: 60+ in 2008 => 50+ in 2018
Israel: 60+ before => 50+ in 2023
Of course, the government cares about cost. They only make a decision if it is cost-effective for them in the short-term. Shingrix is approved from age 50 but there are ongoing trials looking at the efficacy on younger healthy people:
Given the increase in incidence in younger people, the good results showing long-term efficacy, and the ongoing trials, it’s pretty sure that in a few years the shingles vaccine will be recommended from an even younger age all around the world (40yo?).