Update on Brad Stanfield's Rapamycin Clinical Study in NZ

Keep in mind that the Rapa group gained 28% strength improvement, and the control group gained 46%. So even the 6mg/w Rapa (in untrained old noob lifter) didn’t negate all gains.

Yes. And interestingly, Rapa shortened lifespan in obese diabetic mice. (

So there might be something to be said for underlying metabolic health to also play a role.

It should be noted that the pneumonia case was in a patient who had taken one dose of Rapa. I feel that is more likely to just be coincidence than immunosuppression.

Agreed. We simply don’t know. One thing I have in mind is that there’s a potential “risk” in that some cancers are very ‘sensitive’ to immunosuppression. For example, risk of skin cancers rises dramatically with immunosuppression. I found a paper saying that squamous cell carcinoma risk is 100x (yes, one hundred fold) increased in chronically immunosuppressed patients. In someone like a transplant patient, the immunosuppression raises SCC risk by up to 250-fold. Obviously a weekly (or bi-weekly) dose of Rapamycin isn’t at this level, but it’s also not nothing.

Well, that’s taking two extremes though, isn’t it?

I don’t think people expected Rapa to be anabolic. And again, the Rapa group did produce significant gains in strength etc. It’s not like Rapa prevented them making any gains at all.

But also these were old, untrained patients, not bodybuilders. If you’re striving for maximum muscle mass, that’s clearly not pro-longevity. But at the same time, frailty is a huge deal in ageing humans, and I would wager that moderate amounts of exercise to induce hypertrophy, strength, bone density etc should be pro-longevity. If you’re using steroids to the point where you get sleep apnea, cardiac hypertrophy etc, clearly it’s not pro-longevity any more.

I also don’t quite get how you think the study shows Rapa is good for longevity? Can you explain? It shows there is an effect of the 6mg/w dose, but I think we knew that already.

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What I am not clear on is the argument for not exercising whilst there are highish levels of rapamycin in your system. I am planning on taking a dose of rapamycin tomorrow. I have delayed from 6->7 weeks for practical reasons related to the elections in Birmingham.

I will, however, continue using my exercise routine (which is not a big one) after taking it.

What we should know is that the response to exercise will be inhibited in the short term by Rapamycin. I think the response links to mitochondrial efficiency hence any increases in mitochondrial efficiency from Rapamycin will mean a greater long term response to exercise. However, that is really hard to measure as there are so many confounding factors.

If we think more generally about anabolic processes there are three components:
a) Nutrition - without the right inputs you cannot make proteins
b) Stimulus - not just exercise, but other stimuli tell cells to make proteins
c) Genomic Function - the genes need to function although this is a response to a range of post translational modifications I would argue that the key variant is acetylation.

The key driver for acetylation under normal circumstances is citrate efflux from mitochondria which follows from membrane potential/efficiency.

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I got a few DMs asking for commentary about the results of Brad’s study, and I’m happy to oblige, but as I have not read the whole thread since the study came out, I apologize if any of my points cover arguments made by other posters. I’ll try to compensate by taking a broader view of the methodology and general approaches in the biohacking space.

I read the study, but have not taken a microscope to it, because I did not find the study personally particularly relevant or rewarding further examination. This is not a criticism of the author, Dr. Brad is a very likeable character, and he certainly means well, and I think it’s highly commendable that he undertook a rapamycin study at all. In general, I think the study has a decent design, but unfortunately the problem is with the interpretation of the results, including the interpretation made by Dr. Brad within the text of the study and outside of the study (as in the video commentary posted above).

The very first issue is a pretty prevalent one in all of science, and that is overinterpreting the results, with faulty extrapolation from the results. We must always keep in mind what it is that a study has actually shown, vs the conclusions we draw from these results.

What this study has shown is that (1) rapamycin at 6mg (2) once a week (3) over a period of 13 weeks (4) blunted exercise performance improvement (5) in select measures of select domains (sit-stand, walk, grip) (6) in older individuals 65-85 of age (7) who underwent a regular exercise program (8) and who were intially largely sedentary at baseline (9) and the study included some bloodwork biomarker results. That’s it. Sum total. Anything we extrapolate from this and any conclusions beyond the one outlined in points from (1) to (9) are speculation, whether reasonable speculation or not. It’s speculation, period, end of story.

Now, it is understandable that scientists speculate and extrapolate based on a particular model, because that’s how we refine models and try to build further hypothesis with explanatory power. But there are scientifically valid extrapolations and ones that are faulty. The valid ones are built on the totality of the contextual data and the faulty ones are those which are contradicted by other extant data. In the case of Dr. Brad, we are dealing with the latter - his explanations of the results are built on a faulty model and so his extrapolations are scientifically invalid.

Dr. Brad is aware of some of the limitations of the study, the primary one being the short duration. If anyone has any doubts about this, just look at the story of SGLT2i drugs. This is highly relevant to muscle specifically as I’ll show later. There are tons of well conducted studies showing overwhelmingly renoprotective effects of these drugs in both diabetics and non-diabetics. But what does the short term data show? There are many markers of kidney health, but the most commonly used one is a global one of eGFR. Kidney health as measured by eGFR declines with age - the eGFR number declines. SGLT2i were initially prescribed in diabetics and diabetics are particularly vulnerable to a faster decline in eGFR - guess what happens when you put that cohort on SGLT2i drugs: the eGFR number drops compared to controls not on SGLT2i. The SGLT2i drugs cause an immediate drop in eGFR in a substantial number of those diabetics. Over time however, while both the SGLT2i and the controls see an age related decline in eGFR, the SGLT2i group declines much slower (and sometimes bounces back to the initial eGFR number measured before taking the SGLT2i drug) - over time, the controls catch up with the decline of SGLT2i, and then continue declining faster, and over time, the controls keep getting further down in eGFR compared to the rate of decline in SGLT2i. Guess how long it takes for this effect to occur? It can take some 52 weeks - a year. So a Dr. Brad who did a 13 weeks study, would conclude that SGLT2i cause a decline in kidney function, when the exact opposite is true. This is a very relevant example for muscle - and I’ll cite a study showing that.

But Dr. Brad, despite knowing that 13 weeks is a limitation, nonetheless keeps extrapolating from that to conclude - illegitimately - that 6mg/1-week blunts muscle health longer term. No. That’s speculation. Look at what was actually shown in the study as outlined in point (3) - over 13 weeks, not over the long term leading to sarcopenia. Again - stick to the study, the study showed an effect over (3) 13 weeks, not 14 weeks, 2 years or 10 years. It’s 13 weeks, and that’s ALL you can claim based on the study. That’s like saying based on 13 weeks of SGLT2i eGFR number that these drugs are harmful to kidneys longer term. He even states - in the video - that he’d never prescribe rapamycin to the elderly because of fears of sarcopenia. But again, that’s ignoring the limitation he himself acknowledges - the 13 week duration, and extrapolates beyond what the study shows. Now, is this a legitimate extrapolation? Legitimate does not mean “correct”. An extrapolation may be legitimate based on all we know, it’s a reasonable extrapolation. As I outlined above, it must be based on the totality of the data in this context - if there is no contradictory data, it’s a reasonable (even if not necessarily correct) extrapolation. But here it is not - there is contradictory data on muscles that Dr. Brad does not take into account. Therefore, his extrapolation is scientifically illegitimate.

This is such an important methodological point, that I want to take an extra beat looking at this, because this happens over and over and over again in the literature - a real plague.

What is SHOWN in the study by the data is a defined set. However, authors frequently already in the discussion and most often conclusion portions extrapolate from that data and speculate. When is it legitimate, and when is it illegitimate?

In the SGLT2i, let’s imagine that all we have is 13 week data. Based on that, it is legitimate extrapolation that SGLT2i are harmful to the kidneys, because based on the totality of what we know, there is nothing to contradict such extrapolation. Obviously, while it’s legitimate, it is not necessarily correct - indeed we happen now to know it’s not correct. But it’s legitimate based on the totality of the data in this context. Now let’s imagine that we have studies showing that after week 52, the decline flips, and now the SGLT2i show a slower eGFR decline than the controls. If we still claim harm based on the 13 week study, then our extrapolation is now illegitimate based on the totality of the data context (in this case the 52+ week results). Funnily enough we see this even now with some people on this list: those who based on the initial dip in eGFR refuse SGLT2i, even though we also have the contradictory 52+ week data! They extrapolate illegitimately.

So what do we have here? Dr. Brad’s extrapolation of the data is not only speculation, but scientifically illegitimate, based on contradictory data. What that data is, I’ll discuss further down. For now, let’s look at the other big assumption of Dr. Brad’s which is simply wrong.

More in part II.

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Part II

The endpoint of the study is exercise performance. That’s what’s actually shown in the study (over 13 weeks {3}) in point (4) “blunted exercise performace”. OK. But what Dr. Brad does now, is claim - through unsupported extrapolation - that (4) is an unambiguous marker of muscle health and performance long term. That extrapolated claim is simply wrong. First, exercise is not a good marker of longevity in and of itself - there are many studies (for the sake of time, I’m not citing them here, but I’ve posted them before on this site) showing that exercise lowers mortality but does not extend max longevity (i.e. squares the survival curve, but does not extend it). More importantly, short term exercise performance is not a longevity marker, nor a marker of muscle tissue health or performance long term. We have multiple examples, including from countless caloric restriction (CR) studies. In those studies, we see the effect of CR as promoting longevity, but resulting in lower muscle performance and bone density in the period before the decline of old age (same as short term effects of fasting on exercise induced muscle hypertrophy).

However, here we need to make a critical distinction which many people miss. It’s the distinction of (1) a tradeoff of muscle health for longevity and (2) short term performance hit on certain markers vs long term actual benefit for muscle health. That’s extremely important.

As an example we can look at statins and their effect on muscles. There have been studies showing that most statins have a negative effect on muscle health based on calcium channel handling. Whether that has a long term negative effect mediated through subpar exercise adaptation is unclear - I posted a study to the effect that there is no long term negative exercise effect shown for the 75+ year olds. Be that as it may, let’s assume that in fact statins do have a negative effect on muscle health. We may still opt to take statins, based on their overall effect - in which case we take the tradeoff, slightly worse muscle health/performance for better cardiovascular health, and we net out to the taking of statins. The same for the effect of statins on glucose control, where most statins (except pitavastatin) can induce T2 diabetes in a portion of statin taking population - we trade off this negative aspect of statins for the overall health benefit.

But is that what’s happening with CR (and rapamycin)? Is it a trade off? Do we say: both CR and rapamycin extend max lifespan (in animal models) and therefore I am willing to trade off worse muscle health/performance for longevity?

Actually, no. There is no long term trade off. Instead, it’s the SGLT2i model. We have a short term performance hit (blunted exercise benefit), but long term better performance, exactly as in SGLT2i initally taking a hit in eGFR, but later showing a SLOWER decline of eGFR. So, in effect, you have healthier and better performing muscles long term than controls. It’s not a tradeoff, but a preservation of function, superior to the declining muscle health and function of controls.

How does that happen in the case of SGLT2i? The reason eGFR dips in diabetics upon the introduction of an SGLT2i, is that in diabetics we have impaired nephrons doing more work to compensate, filtering more to compensate for the damage - so called hyperfiltration. This hyperfiltration gives you a higher eGFR number, but longer term, this extra work, the hyperfiltration exhausts the nephrons resulting ultimately in more damage and a rapid decline in filtration ability. Now you introduce SGLT2i and their effect is to eliminate the hyperfiltration - as a result, without hyperfiltration, the amount of filtering drops, and so eGFR drops. But longer term, look what you gain - you no longer have the intense exhaustion and damage to nephrons and in the long run they last longer, it’s a slower decline. It’s a win for SGLT2i, you end up not with a trade off, but with healthier kidneys compared to controls.

The analogy would be to two houses, “blue” and “red”. Both have old plumbing that’s weakening from progressive rusting and constricting from mineral deposits - the rate of water flowing from the taps is falling like eGFR. The plumbing is declining with age. The “blue house” calls for a plumber and Matt Kaeberlein turns up - he says, ‘let me turn down this pressure valve’ (by using SGLT2i, rapamycin etc.), and what happens is that because the pressure is lower, the flow of water no longer being pressured so hard slows down - the tap goes from full force to a weaker stream. Meanwhile, the “red house” calls for a plumber and Brad Stanfield turns up and says “do not touch that pressure valve, your water flow will slow down!” - and sure enough, water comes down nicely from the tap, instead of weakly as in the blue house. A year later, in the “red house” where Brad proposed doing absolutely nothing (“will not prescribe rapamycin”), the high water pressure ruptures the progressively more corroded pipes and that’s the end of any water flow from the tap at all. That’s it, flooded basement and no water in the taps, the owner dies of thirst. Meanwhile, in the “blue house”, the weak flow is not stressing the corroded pipes and it keeps on ticking, the owner quenching thirst. The result is that the plumbing in the blue house is in a healthier state and lasts longer than the red house where the pipes burst.

This is basically what happens with a lot of tissues and systems in CR - we have studies (again, posted before, for the sake of time I won’t dig them up here) showing many aspects of muscle tissue benefitting from CR compared to ad lib controls, and ultimately at advanced ages performing better than controls, not just longer lasting. You take an old mouse and the one on CR will have stronger, healthier muscles than the old ad lib one, even though at middle age the ad lib one was stronger. It’s the same curve as in the SGLT2i case - as is the case with testosterone - animals (and humans) on CR take an initial hit on testosterone levels, a dip like eGFR and SGLT2i, but exactly the same way, in the long run the testosterone levels are higher in the CR’d animals compared to ad lib later in life. Same story for reproductive capacity on CR - like exercise capacity superior in old age compared to ad lib, despite the early dip. This is true of many tissues, including neural tissue on CR (and we see that in biomarkers in humans as in the CALERIE study), not merely longer lasting as a tradeoff, but actually healthier, no tradeoff, just straight better. Now, that doesn’t mean that there may not be actual trade offs with CR or rapamycin - the CALERIE study in humans showed lower bone density on CR. In animal models there were hints of CR causing an initial dip in bone density, but compensating for it with superior bone architecture ultimately resulting in superior bone strength in old age. But that is not proven in humans, so from an abundance of caution, I call bone density a genuine trade off in CR. Same way rapamycin can show glucose and lipid disregulation - even though MK claims that in mouse models this normalizes over time, several weeks - I still am cautious and allow that rapamycin may genuinely have a side effect of worse glucose and lipid control. But exercise performance? Nah.

There is one other - minor - aspect of rapamycin and exercise performance, which Dr. Brad is not taking account of. In the PEARL trial, we saw a tendency of women having superior muscle mass and skeletal effect from rapamycin over the long term (48 weeks). Anecdotally, we have reports from folks like Matt Kaeberlein that rapamycin can rescue conditions like frozen shoulder and better performance and recovery in the gym, and many people report fewer aches and pains when exercising with rapamycin (myself included - in fact, this is the only positive effect of rapamycin that I can subjectively FEEL - my endurance is better and I have fewer joint and tendon pains when exercising or post exercise). If this is a legitimate effect, then Brad might not be taking into account the effect of better capacity to exercise - rapamycin may have less of a performance growth with exercise, but because you can exercise MORE with rapamycin (due to muscoskeletal recovery) you might ultimately end up with better performce effects from being able to perform more exercise thanks to rapamycin - something not tested in the exercise program as structured in Brad’s study (a limitation of the study).

But is there a similar “hyperfiltration” effect in muscles as in the kidney nephrons? This is where the SGLT2i effect on kidneys is so relevant to the aging muscle. This is a vital effect which has monumental importance on our approach to the biohacking of the whole aging process - something that is sorely lacking in the approach of the vast majority of the people in this space.

More in part III.

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I haven’t seen Part III, but I agree with your analysis in Parts I and II.

It remains, however, that given my understanding of the mechanism through which Rapamycin affects cells I think it should be taken less frequently than every week. I am taking it tomorrow 7 weeks after the last dose. A high dose, however.

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Part III

In order to understand the aging process in muscle and what to do about it, we need to examine a fundamental concept in aging that unfortunately is rarely accounted for by the vast majority of biohackers. That concept is that aging is not just deterioration, but it is adaptation.

I have previously posted several studies on this site showing that many aging related changes in (1) the immune system (2) the cardiovascular system (3) the microbiome are not just a deterioration but an adaptation to other global changes in the organisms. An older immune system is a system adapted in some respects to the conditions of the rest of the body, because it is an effort at homeostasis of the whole organism, where one system compensates for the deterioration of another. If you now attempt to “bring back” the older immune system to the metrics of a younger one, you don’t get a younger functioning overall system, you get a dramatically worse outcome. Let’s go back to the house plumbing analogy. Imagine that when faced with weaker water flow from the tap (the result of age accumulated mineral deposits) we actually boost the water pressure so that the water flow is as if the pipes are brand new (“young”) - it will give you a very short increase in the rate of the water flow and then burst the pipes. The slower water flow is an adaptation of the aging plumbing system. If you want to fix the plumbing system, you need to go upstream and fix a lot of other things first, remove the deposits, fix the corrosion and so on. It takes a lot to fix the plumbing, merely boosting water pressure so that the water flows as if the pipes are young will lead to disaster. The same situation if you try to “boost” the immune system as we’re incessantly urged to do - this can very well be counterproductive, unless you take a very holistic approach and try fixing problems much upstream. I posted a study to that effect in the immune system. I did the same for the cardiovascular system and the microbiome, studies showing how a surface intervention to “fix” some aspect (bring it to “young” levels) results in disaster. This btw. is why I’m very cautious about the Michael Lustgarten approach of trying to push all biomarkers to their “youthful” state - when are you actually rolling back the clock and when are you merely obviating the aging adaptation which is trying to deal with the problems and bring the whole body into homeostasis? This is a huge problem in the biohacking longevity space. We are constantly reading studies that show some intervention, drug, supplement etc. bringing something to a more “youthful” state and we don’t ask ourselves if this is the right approach and we’re not actually making things much worse by working against the body adaptation processes. There are some nods toward this concept when there’s a hamhanded attempt to “increase antioxidants” without asking if doing so in this case might not result in a worse outcome like in cancer or removal of exercise adaptations.This is true of all systems in the body, including the muscle. Surely we understand that on some level in the case of muscles, because we understand that while some increased muscle mass is good, doing so by injecting steroids is suboptimal.

We need a much more subtle approach - generally this is going to be by going upstream in the aging pathway and more global solutions. Not increasing muscle size by injecting steroids so to speak. That is why the higher upstream you go, the more preserved the anti-aging effect is going to be, as in affecting the mTOR protein. Note that mTOR inhibition results in a very global effect of slowing the rate of aging itself, not so much by addressing discrete pathologies as such. So we have the same set of age related morbidities and pathologies, just postponed in time because we slowed the aging process. This is true of all these mTOR inhibitor interventions, whether through CR/fasting or rapamycin - you are slowing down the whole aging process at a high level - this is an approach that gets around the “adaptation” of the body to age-related changes, because you are slowing the aging itself and therefore we avoid the need for adaptation. That’s a very fundamental concept.

Do we see something similar to that in muscle tissue, as we do for all those curves in SGLT2i/kidney health, hormonal levels etc.? Yes we do. Here’s an interesting study - you can read the study or at least you should read the pop sci article on that study, it’s a really important one addressing this concept squarely, so I would strongly urge you to read this article at least, if not the study itself.

In fact, this is such a good study that I’m going to make a separate thread about it.

Cellular Survivorship Bias as a Mechanistic Driver of Muscle Stem Cell Aging

And one of the pop sci articles I found about this study, worth reading:

Muscle recovery slows with age, but it may not be a bad thing

A few quotes:

"Aging rarely announces itself in dramatic ways. It arrives through small delays. A sore muscle lingers longer than expected or a minor strain lasts weeks instead of days.

Movements that once felt effortless now demand caution. Many people read this as decline. The body seems to be losing its edge. But recent research offers a different view. These changes may not signal failure. They may reflect a shift in priorities inside the body."

"Young cells sprint, old cells endure

“Think of it like a marathon runner versus a sprinter. The stem cells in young animals are hyper-functioning – really good at what they do, namely sprinting, but they’re not good for the long term,” said Dr. Thomas Rando from the Stanford University School of Medicine.

‘They can make it through the 100-yard dash, but they can’t make it even halfway through the marathon. By contrast, aged stem cells are like marathon runners – slower to respond, but better equipped for the long haul.’

‘However, what makes them so proficient over long distances is exactly what renders them poor at sprinting.’

This contrast highlights a key shift. Aging cells do not simply weaken. They adjust their strategy."

"As tissues age, their environment becomes more demanding. Oxidative stress increases. Damage accumulates. Not all cells can survive under these conditions.

The cells that remain are not the fastest or most efficient. They are the ones that endure."

"This balance between performance and survival is not unique to muscle cells. It appears across living systems.

During periods of scarcity, animals often reduce activity linked to growth or reproduction. Energy shifts toward survival. This response helps them endure difficult conditions. The same principle operates within aging tissues. “Species survive because they reproduce, but in times of deprivation, animals turn on their own resilience programs,” Rando said.

“There are a lot of examples in nature of allocating resources to survival under times of stress. It’s exactly aligned with what we’re seeing at the cellular level.”

Muscle stem cells follow this pattern. They slow down to preserve their long-term function."

[This is called - CR!]

“Any attempt to modify this system must weigh short-term gains against long-term consequences.”

"Slower recovery may not signal failure. It may represent a protective adjustment. The body chooses to preserve its resources instead of using them all at once.

Some age-related changes that look detrimental – like slower tissue repair – may actually be necessary compromises that prevent something worse: the complete depletion of the stem cell pool,” said Dr. Rando.

This perspective shifts the narrative. Aging becomes a process of balance rather than simple decline."


So - here we can see the same idea for muscle aging as we see in CR and other mTOR affecting interventions like rapamycin. You slam on the brakes. In the SGLT2i/kidney terms, you prevent the “hyperfiltration”, the frenzy of incessant activation. The muscle like many other tissues gradually loses the ability to receive signals - it becomes resistant to protein, growth etc. It’s like the loss of sensitivity to insulin - when you are no longer insulin sensitive, merely boosting the levels of insulin, boosting the signal is like going into hyperfiltration mode of increased effort that works in the short term, but leads to disaster longer term (increasing insulin until diabetes and eventual pancreatic beta cell exhaustion and death). Instead, you want to go upstream and fix the problem of signal reception loss, like insulin resistance, so you are not merely boosting the signal - go upstream through mTOR inhibition (CR or rapamycin).

CR just as rapamycin is slamming the brakes on the aging process in muscles at the cost of short term blunting of exercise performance. Long term, we know what CR does for muscles and rapamycin works through the same master regulator mTOR. It fixes loss of signal reception like insulin resistance.

This is where Dr. Brad goes wrong. He has the wrong model of why muscle recovery and adaptation slows down with aging. The primary lever is not autophagy, and therefore the cycling of autophagy model cannot explain the result. If you have the wrong model in mind, then run an experiment that gives you negative results, it’s not because there is something wrong with the tested intervention, it’s that your expectation is wrong because you have the wrong model. In the house plumbing analogy, Brad thinks that the intervention of lowering the pressure valve (administering rapamycin) means that it doesn’t work, because it causes the water flow to weaken, whereas that simply says that his model of how the plumbing system works is wrong. Same when he administers rapamycin thinking that based on his autophagy model if the exercise performance drops it means that rapamycin doesn’t work as hoped for, instead of realizing that the effect is actually good, instead it’s his model that’s bad. As the study above shows - slower muscle recovery is an adaptation, and blunted exercise peformance is a way to get ahead of the aging process itself by affecting mTOR.

More in part IV.

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Part IV

So where do we go from here? Dr. Brad thinks this means we should attenuate rapamycin administration either to zero in the elderly (to avoid sarcopenia), or lower the dose, or lengthen the interval of rapamycin from 1-week to 2 weeks or more. At some point you will no longer have rapamycin blunting the exercise performance. Because so many of his assumptions and extrapolations are either wrong or scientifically illegitimate, this is nonsensical advice. Imagine that you are taking a medication that is saving you from fatal cancer. But there are side effects. Would you then advocate the attrition of the medication to the point where there are no side effects? Congratulations, you are now doing nothing for your cancer. It’s silly.

Dr. Brad is wrong about the use of exercise performance, especially short term, as a metric of successful aging or muscle health. He is using the wrong model (autophagy) to evaluate the impact of rapamycin and his prescriptions are therefore completely misguided.

But back to the question of where that leaves us - in exactly the same place as before the study. We still don’t know what the optimal dose and schedule is of rapamycin for successful aging. It could be daily, weekly, multi-weekly (per John Hemming) - we don’t know, we are speculating and experimenting. I have my approach, but I have no proof, maybe MK’s approach is best, or maybe John’s, or desertshore’s. We don’t know. We still don’t know which effects of rapamycin represent downsides (including exercise adaptation) to be ameliorated through other interventions, including other drugs (or more exercise). We still can’t prove that rapamycin is definitely extending lifespans in humans. We are in exactly the same place.

I for one see zero reasons to change my once a week 6mg dose of rapamycin (to be soon boosted to 8mg per the Arizona study design), based on Dr. Brad’s study. It would be utterly absurd. I see no personal relevance of this study to my situation, period.

Rapamycin continues to be a gamble. Those of us who elect to take rapamycin evaluate the upsides as worth it compared to downsides. Everyone has their own analysis and their own risk tolerance. Speaking for myself, I take rapamycin for four classes of reasons. One, it works in each and every species that has been studied - that’s very powerful. Now, I ask myself what are the odds that humans are the one special snowflake where it doesn’t work. But, you have to always look to counterarguments, not just things to confirm your bias. The counterargument to that argument is that the simpler the organism, the more powerful the effect, yeast multiples of lifespan, worms extremely high, flies high, mice about 20-30% extension of max lifespan, cats and dogs likely 10-15%, by the time you get to humans you might be barely at 5% if that, not to mention truly long-lived species such as bowheaded whales. That’s true of all anti-aging interventions including CR - the more complex the organism and the more long lived, the smaller the life extension effect. Meanwhile, for that theoretical 5% you might have very real life limiting side effects - it just might net out to zero if not go negative. Is that so? I don’t know. The second set of reasons, is that rapamycin is the only drug that has actual max life extension potential (and the other intervention is CR) that has a chance of slowing the global rate of aging at a very upstream point of aging pathways. If I am to try biohacking aging, as far as drugs go, rapamycin is my only choice - I either play that card or have to walk away from the table… I choose to play. Counterargument: let us never forget, no intervention works for everyone in the cohort. CR shortens the lifespan of some mice in a cohort, as does rapamycin. You might be unlucky in being a non-responder (or lucky being a superresponder like Agetron and Charles). Third set of reasons: rapamycin appears to be a pretty safe drug, and the known downsides such as possible glucose and lipid disregulation are easily ameliorated through other drugs (which I would want to take anyway even if there were no rapamycin!). Counterargument: there are scattered studies where rapamycin is not a harmless drug, especially if you get the dosing protocol wrong - and news alert, we have no idea what the right protocol or dosing is… we’re flying half-blind. Fourth, the same reason Matt Kaeberlein is optimistic - there are enough studies with hints that rapamycin has benefits in different conditions that in all that smoke there might be a fire somewhere. Counterargument is very simple - until there is some kind of very solid evidence (perhaps with the Arizona trial), all this is copium hopium, we’ve seen many hopes be dashed before, and rapamycin may very well be one of them.

A final observation about biohacking. There have been sharp panic moves as a result of this study following Dr. Brad’s speculation that the dose should be stretched out in frequency. For multiple reasons I outlined in these posts, that’s a severe overreaction. It is a common flaw in many biohacker approaches to make dramatic adjustments based on any old study that comes out on any given day. That’s no way to proceed. You will be forever yanked around by studies the import of which most have only a vague idea of. My approach is different. Before I adopt a drug or supplement for my stack, I first conduct exhaustive research. As a result, one gains a certain amount of background data on these specific interventions, where I can then evaluate whether the extapolation from any given study is legitimate or not as oulined in the previous installments of this post - unless you have a deep contextual data base for your stack, you cannot evaluate whether any study implications are legitimate and worth paying attention to or not. As happens here, because I decided to take rapamycin after extensive research, I had enough of a background to see the flaws in Dr. Brad’s extrapolations and speculations.

As a heuristic. First, read all you can about your drug and how it fits with the rest of your stack and your particular health situation. Second, examine the study dispassionately and establish the quality and design of the study. Third, if the design is good, establish very clearly the limits of what has actually been shown in the study - this is critical and the number one mistake scientists make - they don’t pay enough attention to what is actually shown vs what they speculate has been shown (as an example I enumerated what was actually shown in points 1-9 in Brad’s study). Fourth, ask yourself if the extrapolations from the study made by the authors or commentators are scientifically legitimate or not, based on the totality of the contextual data - are there other studies or evidence for contrary conclusions.

The end result, is that it takes me a very long time to research and settle on a drug for my stack, and as a consequence my stack tends to be very stable - it takes correspondingly long for me to put in as take out any drug. This doesn’t mean I don’t change my mind based on emerging evidence, but I always try to stay ahead of the curve by continuing reading and education. This prevents my getting yanked around by every study that drops from somewhere. I may one day decide to abandon rapamycin, or change the dosing or protocol, but it won’t be today as a result of Dr. Brad’s study.

I apologize for the length of this, but hope it helps cast some light on the study whether one agrees with me or not.

YMMV.

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My view on Rapamycin is that its main mode of operation that is positive is encouraging selective mitophagy and to a certain extent, therefore, the intensity of the signal is more important than its frequency. Hence having higher doses at a lower frequency (the limit is side effects) is likely to do a better job at recycling the inefficient mitochondria. That is why often single doses can have quite a significant effect.

As a thought experiment consider a set of mitochondria of a range of efficiencies and the question as to whether removing the least 1% efficient once a week is better than removing the least 2% efficient once a fortnight.

Thank you for your great blog. You make a lot of interesting points.

Though I am n=1, I can assure you that rapamycin dramatically slows sarcopenia in elderly males. It also has anti-cancer properties. As for blunted muscle gain, since I have always been a “hard gainer,” I wouldn’t even notice a minor blunting of the exercise response.

Dosing is still a subject of much debate. I have chosen to follow Dr. Mihail Blogosklonny’s recommendation. I have been doing a high dose (8+ mg with GFJ) for five years. Luckily, I have no subjective side effects from this dose, except for slower wound healing, and I can’t even be sure that’s true because older people heal more slowly.

Since I recently joined a new gym, I am trying to see if I can still increase my muscle mass. This will be fairly easy for me to find out, as I took a holiday break from the gym and lost some muscle mass. I will be trying a once-monthly high dose of at least 20 mg or more of rapamycin.

Forgive me for reposting a picture of me at age 83. I will post a new one for comparison when I have been back at the gym for a while. At this point, I had been taking high-dose rapamycin for about 2 years.

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I wondered about this - I do exercise on rapamycin days but avoid heavy resistance and intense cardio - without having a well argued reason why.

My faltering argument/worry is that: mTOR inhibition impairs muscle protein synthesis (MPS). Heavy resistance training causes micro-tears and stress in muscle fibers. Also intense Cardio and heart muscle? Normally, mTORC1 drives the repair and adaptation process (elevated MPS for hours to days post-workout). Rapamycin blocks this, so damaged fibers may recover more slowly or suboptimally?

So i stick to zone 2, tai chi and try not to care if i lose a game of tennis. But maybe its just: any excuse to avoid the gym…

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That’s sensible.

I am a member of a gym, but I have not been for some time. My daughters have pretended to be me.

That is less hassle than setting up guest access.

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This is a very interesting point, and I had had similar thoughts.

One of possibility is that Rapamycin side effects affected the performance of the participants. If you look at adverse events, the Rapa arm reported 99 AEs versus 63 in placebo. Those were things like fatigue, headache etc. Now, if I had fatigue and a headache and you asked me to stand and sit on a chair as many times as possible, I’d probably put in less effort.

And regarding over-interpretation, I totally agree. People saying they’ll stop lifting etc makes zero sense.

If you do take a magnifying glass to the results, you can see that in the placebo group, the standard deviation rose from 3.42 to 5.92 between baseline and week 13, while rapamycin’s went from 2.12 to 4.18. In Fig 2B, you can see two placebo group people who basically doubled their performance at baseline. That’s also a good argument for why we shouldn’t over-interpret, because the results are hugely swayed by just a couple of individuals.

100% agree. Very very well said. I read every word of your series of posts, and this is a nice summary statement!

To my understanding, in the hypertrophy research field, the links between fibre damage, MPS and eventual strength/muscle gains are not as clear-cut as expected. For example, you can have hypertrophy without much underlying damage (think about blood flow restriction training, for example). You can also have large amounts of muscle damage (run a marathon and be sore for days) and not much resulting hypertrophy.

IMO, as long as you’re not hitting a point of chronic overtraining where you can never repair damage fast enough, it won’t be an issue. For most of us non-pro-bodybuilders, strength training 2-3x per week is more than adequate to look good with your shirt off and stay strong, metabolically healthy etc. That should be recoverable for almost anybody.

This is the part that makes no sense to me (no offence intended). So even if, on Rapa, you can only get 58% of the gains (as in Brad’s study), it doesn’t negate all gains or make the exercise pointless in any way. And the benefits from resistance/strength training are simply massive. Bear in mind, in Brad’s trial, participants were doing a crappy exercise cycle thing and standing up off a chair. If you can barbell squat your bodyweight for 5 reps, you are a HELL of a lot fitter and stronger and more capable than most, and that’s honestly a very modest goal which most people can obtain in less than 2 years of training.

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yes, you’re almost certainly correct - i just avoid zone 5 on rapamycin days out of an overabundance of caution and laziness

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We do not know that. It’s an assumption.

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Yeah maybe my original claim was a bit too vague. We have reasonably strong evidence that avoiding sarcopenia — meaning preserving muscle mass as you age — is important for longevity. This is not just an assumption.

Yes, I read that muscle quality (strength and function) is an even more powerful predictor of longevity than muscle quantity (mass) alone. Our muscle strength declines much faster than we actually lose muscle volume.

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Yes, I think that’s right. And muscle mass is a major input into strength and function but it’s not the only input

Trying to maintain my muscles - it’s not easy and especially on my low protein diet.

“Consequently, mTORC1 (the master regulator of translation initiation) likely remained partially inhibited during the critical post-exercise windows of the following sessions, thereby dampening the hypertrophic response.”

The study didn’t even measure muscle mass or size… it is all speculation and nonsense. It is a very poor study with writing that shouldn’t have passed peer review.

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Example of a problem I described in my posts on this study: the terribly common and devastating flaw plaguing a large proportion of papers out there - the inability of the authors and commentators to understand what a study actually shows. In this case, it showed that there is blunted exercise benefit* - that’s it. The extrapolation about why that is, (mTOR inhibition), or any long term (greater than 13 weeks ) consequences is pure speculation that in this case is also scientifically illegitimate (legitimate vs illegitimate speculation is another concept I elucidated in those posts).

*sum total of what the study showed:

“(1) rapamycin at 6mg (2) once a week (3) over a period of 13 weeks (4) blunted exercise performance improvement (5) in select measures of select domains (sit-stand, walk, grip) (6) in older individuals 65-85 of age (7) who underwent a regular exercise program (8) and who were intially largely sedentary at baseline (9) and the study included some bloodwork biomarker results.” Everything else is speculation, whether scientifically legitimate or not.