Life Expectancy in the USA (Bad and Getting Worse)

I have to admit that I am struggling more than usual with school this year. I hope to retire and move on to an adjunct position in the Physics department at the nearby university. So, I’m sort of in reflection mode right now. I’m constantly looking back at the years in public ed. Although through the years, I’ve always critically examined what I’m doing in the classroom to adapt and remain successful. I could easily continue in my current position because of that trait and the fact that my students consistently score above the average on the state science test. This is what makes teaching an incredibly difficult job. Constantly having to examine and compensate for the abrupt changes in culture that we feel first here in the classroom For me it’s been drug epidemics, wars, financial crisis, pandemics, and now phones. My curriculum has gone from paper and pencil to complete digitalization with the ability to go completely remote, and lab activities have gone from stopwatches and meter sticks to motion sensors, accelerometers, interfaces, laptops, and graphing software.

I’m also a parent and both of my kids have passed through my classroom. My son is in law school and my daughter went to work for a survey company immediately after graduating with her bachelors in a GIS environmental field. However, both struggle with issues related to phones and social media. It was a real crisis for our family and nothing like I ever encountered with previous generations.

I’m usually quick to blame phones for the lack of attention in the classroom. But, after backpacking the Haute route from Chamonix to Zermatt this summer I began to feel like our physical environment in the USA might also be to blame for attention problems. Compared to the north american backpacking adventures that I have had there were so many more teenagers out on the extremely tough trails of the alps. Whole gangs of school aged boys and girls hiking at incredible paces up down the trails of France and Switzerland. The food and water we encountered was amazing. Everyday we were powered by wholesome dinners, breakfasts, and glacial water.

We got home days before school started (my wife teaches math) in total culture shock. I’ve never felt less ready for school to start with my perspective on health and society turned upside down. I’ve been trying to make sense of it in my classroom and as a parent of kids here in the USA. Hence, my consultations with Chatgpt.

Politics in the USA can’t be ignored as a major factor affecting children and school. Politics have played a huge role in the state of affairs in science education and education in general. Funding and autonomy have reached a new low. Now, as a result the profession isn’t very attractive and very few students are entering teacher training . We have at least 3 uncertified teachers in positions in math and science in my small school. We also were unable to adopt nation wide science standards because of politics. Climate change, evolution, vaccines, etc. are now all controversial to teach. I still cover these topics carefully, so I don’t get parental complaints.

Climate change is especially personal for me. I’m an avid cross country skier. I moved to the lake Superior region for the abundant snow and long winters. I ski everyday after school and have been dreaming of all day outings when I retire. Alas, climate change has different ideas. We now have marginal snow throughout the winter with much later start dates and earlier melt offs. Many races are cancelled every season.

If I’m having a “get off my lawn” moment it is because my lawn is poking through the snow in December when it should be a foot deep. :slightly_frowning_face:

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I think we may be turning a corner here… With future growth in life expectancy to follow…

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After decades of trying it appears telling fat people to move more and eat less finally worked!

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Seems like something every country should measure their success by… improving healthy lifespan.

China targets increasing average life expectancy to 80 years

By Wang Xiaoyu | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2025-10-24 11:32

China aims to increase the average life expectancy to 80 years over the next five years, up from 79 at the end of 2024, Health Minister Lei Haichao said at a news conference on Friday.

Lei said the target is based on an analysis of international development trends, current progress in healthcare, and the country’s overall national strength.

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This video says it all. Americans under 50 are dying earlier for one major reason.

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No. It’s the GLP-1RAs! People are eating just as much and moving just as little as ever :slight_smile:

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Why are people taking those drugs, if the danger of ODing is so great? There must be a reason(s). If you want to prevent those deaths, what do you do? What is the approach in formulating a policy to decrease those deaths? Does that policy address the reason(s) for taking those drugs or does the policy not address those reasons and instead tries to solve the problem somehow differently? Substance abuse and dependence has been with us since the dawn of time and not been solved. Wonder why that is. Why is the problem bigger in some countries than others?

But the first and most fundamental question is: why do people take those drugs if the danger of ODing is so great?

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My guess is that a rather small percentage of the ODs can be chalked up to experimentation, but mostly it’s because for a huge percentage of the population life sucks in the USA, and drug use is a escape from malaise and sorrow engendered in and by the difficulty of life in this society. I see it daily in the major US city I live in.

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The same reason people still drink and drive. It won’t happen to me.
:frowning:

Because Purdue Pharma marketed their opioids as non addictive pain killers so a lot of people got it from their doctors for pain treatment and got hooked.

From BBC: Why opioids are such an American problem

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Honestly, I am assuming a large proportion of the ODs could be due to fentanyl. It’s amazingly addictive, deadly and drug dealers usually lace normal drugs with it to increase sales. Fentanyl is horrible.

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It seems to be a fairly “US centric” problem. Hong Kong, where DeStrider is from, and much of East Asian, seemingly doesn’t have many overdoses. I would guess that’s from a policy of extremely strict drug laws which are very strongly enforced at every level. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea - all have extremely harsh penalties for drug offences and very tight border controls.

And culturally, I reckon the population is much less open minded to using drugs in the first place. There is strong stigmatism against drug users. The societies in general are less “me me me”. You don’t have rappers and celebrities etc on TV boasting and glamourising drug use. And I have to wonder whether population education levels have something to do with it, but that’s pure speculation.

I do agree, but I don’t think that’s US-specific. Millions of people across Asian countries are packed into tiny apartments, with crushing working hours, low salaries and almost no time off. Plus a shitload of cultural and societal pressures.

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Yes, drug offences are very serious in Hong Kong. It may be even worse in places like Singapore.

Any person who has in his possession; or smokes, inhales, ingest or injects a dangerous drug, shall be liable upon conviction to a fine USD$ 125,000 and imprisonment for 7 years.

That’s enough to deter me, not that I’d ever want to touch the stuff. The prisons here are full of unwitting mules and drug traffickers.

In 2023, there were 105,007 drug overdose deaths in the United States, a nearly 3% decline from 2022.

In 2021, there were 36 drug overdose and poisonings in Hong Kong

Since the USA is 50X larger, adjuster per capita, that would be about 1,800 ODs in Hong Kong. However, that figure also includes all other poisonings including suicides (drinking floor cleaner is a popular suicide method and would be counted). Either way, it’s a big difference!

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CDC: Life Expectancy Increased in Most States in 2022

Their latest report. However, as their 2019 visualization shows, life expectancy still hadn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/state-life-expectancy/index_2019.htm

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Yes there is.

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A really good overview of life expectancy trends around the world, and how to understand what is going on. I wonder what the impact of AI will be on these trends…:

I. Executive Summary

The “Death of Despair” Hypothesis is Dead; Enter “Deaths of Dislocation.”

Current life expectancy data reveals a K-shaped divergence masked by mean statistics. While the top 5% of US earners now outlive peers in Norway and the UK, the bottom 5% have suffered a catastrophic loss of approximately 15 years of life expectancy. This decline is not driven by metabolic disease (CVD, cancer) but by “external causes”: substance abuse and suicide. Crucially, the prevailing “Deaths of Despair” narrative (Case & Deaton) is statistically inferior to a “Deaths of Dislocation” model.

Recent longitudinal data (Glei et al., 2024) demonstrates that subjective feelings of despair (depression, distress) are weak predictors of mortality compared to objective structural factors: labor force detachment and social isolation. The mechanism of mortality is not purely psychological anguish but the kinetic availability of lethal means (e.g., fentanyl, pesticides) combined with the loss of “communal utility” (employment). Interventions focusing on individual therapy or financial compensation (UBI) without restoring social function are projected to fail. Effective protocols must be structural (means restriction) and communal (group-based labor), not clinical or pharmaceutical.


II. Insight Bullets

  • The Mean is meaningless: Aggregate life expectancy stagnation hides a massive divergence; the top 5% are gaining years while the bottom 5% are collapsing.
  • US Elite Health Paradox: The top 5% of Americans have superior longevity compared to the average citizen in “healthier” social democracies like Norway or Denmark.
  • Mortality inversion: For adults under 55, “external causes” (suicide, overdose) have surpassed cardiovascular disease and cancer as the leading cause of death.
  • Despair is a symptom, not the cause: “Despair” (self-reported misery) increases mortality risk by ~50%, whereas unemployment and isolation increase it by significantly higher margins.
  • Dislocation > Depression: A depressed person with a job and community is statistically safer than a happy person with neither.
  • Supply-side suicide: Suicide rates are often driven by the availability of lethal means (e.g., toxic pesticides in Sri Lanka) rather than fluctuations in population mental health.
  • Cohort Scarring: Drug death data reveals “diagonal” cohort effects (specific generations damaged by economic shocks) rather than “vertical” period effects (general availability of drugs).
  • The “Men’s Shed” Effect: Group-based, labor-oriented interventions show higher efficacy for isolated men than individual therapy or solitary exercise.
  • Digital failure: Digital interventions (apps, chatbots) generally fail to mitigate isolation unless they facilitate synchronous, group-based interaction (e.g., social gaming).
  • Anglophone fragility: Unemployment in English-speaking countries carries a higher “social death” penalty than in other cultures, leading to sharper mortality spikes.
  • Manufacturing vs. Cyclical: Job losses in manufacturing (total industry erasure) cause deep cohort scarring; cyclical unemployment does not have the same lethal long-term tail.
  • UBI Insufficiency: Financial restitution alone (UBI) cannot mitigate the mortality risk of unemployment because it fails to replace the “social container” of the workplace.
  • Fentanyl Waves: The opioid crisis follows “epidemic wave” dynamics (East to West) largely independent of state-level policy interventions.
  • Medicalization Limits: Safe supply/medicalization strategies work for containment (low prevalence) but fail during high-prevalence, widespread epidemics (fentanyl).
  • Social Isolation Toxicity: Isolation operates as a distinct biological risk factor, functionally separate from and more lethal than subjective loneliness.

III. Adversarial Claims & Evidence Table

Claim from Video Speaker’s Evidence Scientific Reality (Current Data) Evidence Grade Verdict
Unemployment/Isolation is a stronger predictor of death than “Despair” Longitudinal analysis of “thousands of Americans” (2023/24). Confirmed. Glei et al. (2024) found labor force detachment and low social integration were strongly associated with drug/suicide mortality, while distress measures were not. Level B (Longitudinal Cohort) Strong Support Source
Suicide rates are driven by “ease of means” (e.g., Pesticides) Sri Lanka agricultural revolution and subsequent bans. Confirmed. Pesticide bans in Sri Lanka reduced suicide rates by ~70% (1995-2005) without changes in mental health prevalence. Level C (Ecological / Natural Experiment) Strong Support Source
“Men’s Sheds” improve health outcomes for isolated men Anecdotal success in Australia/Ireland; comparison to individual exercise. Mixed/Plausible. Systematic reviews show high qualitative value (social connection) but “small” or “unclear” quantitative effects on physical biomarkers. Level C (Observational/Qualitative) Experimental / Plausible Source
Substance abuse/suicide kills more under-55s than CVD/Cancer Aggregate mortality trends for bottom 5%. Confirmed. CDC data (2021) shows “Unintentional Injuries” (inc. overdose) is the #1 cause of death for ages 1-44, surpassing cancer/heart disease. Level A (Epidemiological Data) Strong Support Source

IV. Actionable Protocol (Prioritized)

High Confidence Tier (Level A/B Evidence)

  • Protocol 1: Means Restriction (Suicide Prevention).

  • Action: Physical removal of high-lethality agents (firearms, toxic chemical concentrates) from the immediate environment of at-risk individuals.

  • Rationale: Suicide is often impulsive; increasing the “kinetic friction” of the act significantly lowers completion rates (Sri Lanka data).

  • Protocol 2: Social Integration via Employment.

  • Action: Prioritize retention of employment or immediate placement in “communal labor” over passive financial assistance (disability/welfare) for capable individuals.

  • Rationale: Labor force detachment is a verified mortality multiplier independent of income (Glei et al., 2024).

Experimental Tier (Level C Evidence)

  • Protocol 3: “Men’s Sheds” / Task-Oriented Socialization.

  • Action: Engage isolated males in side-by-side cooperative tasks (woodwork, repair, team sports) rather than face-to-face therapy.

  • Rationale: Observational data suggests high adherence and reduced isolation for men in task-based groups, mitigating the “Anglophone isolation” risk.

  • Protocol 4: Social Gaming as Digital Intervention.

  • Action: If digital interaction is necessary, utilize platforms requiring synchronous voice/team cooperation (e.g., MMOs, squad-based games) rather than passive social media or text-chat.

Red Flag Zone (Safety Warnings)

  • Solitary Digital Interventions: AI chatbots or “mental health apps” used in isolation may exacerbate disconnection. (Source: Speaker warning/Lack of efficacy data).
  • Pure Financial Compensation: UBI or severance packages provided without a mechanism for social re-integration (job placement) leave the mortality risk of “dislocation” untreated.

V. Technical Mechanism Breakdown

Pathology: The “Cohort Scarring” & Dislocation Model

The transcript rejects a purely biochemical model of depression in favor of a Sociogenic/Structural model of mortality.

  1. Cohort Scarring (The Diagonal Vector):
  • Standard disease models operate on Period Effects (vertical line on a graph: a virus arrives, everyone gets sick).
  • The drug/suicide crisis operates on Cohort Effects (diagonal line: a specific age group is traumatized by an economic shock, e.g., de-industrialization).
  • Mechanism: The “scar” is not just economic but identity-based. The loss of the “provider” role or “craftsman” identity during critical developmental windows creates a permanent vulnerability to external soothing agents (opioids/alcohol).
  1. Kinetic Availability (The Activation Energy of Suicide):
  • Suicidal ideation is often transient. The transition from ideation to action is gated by the Activation Energy required to procure lethal means.
  • Pesticide/Gun Mechanism: High-lethality, low-friction means allow transient despair to become permanent death.
  • Means Restriction: Increases the activation energy, allowing the “despair wave” to pass without a fatal event.
  1. Social Allostasis (Isolation vs. Despair):
  • Despair is a subjective emotional state (cortical).
  • Isolation/Dislocation is a survival threat (sub-cortical/evolutionary).
  • Mechanism: Evolutionarily, separation from the tribe is a death sentence. It triggers chronic hyper-vigilance and inflammatory cascades (allostatic load) that are distinct from “sadness.” This explains why employment (tribal utility) is protective even if the individual reports low mood.
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Related: maternal mortality ratio is getting worse each year in the US. Now so bad that it’s worse than China.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/maternal-mortality-ratio-who-gho?tab=line&time=earliest..2023&country=USA~CHN

Some states are doing better, but even the best states (California and Washington) are performing like Kazakhstan and Turkey:

Similar picture for child mortality:

Source: https://commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2025/oct/maternal-child-mortality-how-do-us-states-compare-internationally

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Thanks. But mortality increased by +21% between 1985 and 2003, then +34% between 2003 and 2017 then -7% between 2017 and 2023. And ChatGPT says that the UK, France, Italy, and Nordics (among others) are like the US in terms of reporting. So that doesn’t explain the US under performance. Although it might explain the Chinese overperformance (but probably not the overall improving trend).

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