Bryan Johnson, Is he the New Poster Child for Rapamycin Use?

My claim was that it’s easy to beat a hedge fund:

If you can beat the SP 500, you can easily beat hedge funds.

Also, I said it’s easy to make money. I am assuming a 10% annual return is easy. So something better than that is my goal.

I never use margin to buy bonds or equities. That would be too risky for me.

I am not an optimal trader, but I am happy with my choices. :slight_smile:

That data is not reflective of all hedge funds - many aren’t in that data. So one actually can’t say that’s the true average let alone biotech hedge funds, but okay - hedge funds can have an unclear definition in the first place.

My original comment was about beating the team of PhDs in biotech hedge funds that one is up against on the other side, particularly when it comes to biotech stocks, with the implication of fundamental analysis to determine probabilities in clinical trial success rates. So when you claimed in your reply it’s easy to make lots of money with the implication on biotech stocks, I assumed you were replying to that specifically rather than an unrelated general statement.

But either way it’s actually not “easy” as you claim and that’s reflected in the risks you’re taking which is more of “selling insurance” using extremely risky leverage with possibly catastrophic risks on complex derivatives, at least in part using highly questionable technical analysis. That’s why I think it’s pretty fair to say probably no real edge. It’s more likely akin to the classic metaphor “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller” - seems easy until it isn’t. I’m sure you realize the risks to at least some extent as you mentioned part of the risk and have some experience but any way you slice it, “safe” is an overstatement. The same goes for those higher-yielding end of investment-grade corporate bonds with what appears to be macroeconomic gambling on the future trajectory of Fed rates, which is also pretty hard to gain an edge as a one-man shop and the rationale is even more questionable when you also claim it’s “safe”, but it seems you’re at least somewhat aware of the even higher efficiency of those markets. I’m even more confident of an even higher likelihood there is no edge on the bond side.

One can certainly be as happy as one wants with your investment choices, but it’s largely irrelevant to the apparent problems with the methodology. I’d suggest avoiding the overstatement of claimed “safe” returns.

I sold my first tech business (created in 1983) in 2019. That business provided transaction handling services to brokers. Over the years I saw plenty of people go bankrupt from writing/selling options. Its picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

I have done reasonably well out of investments, but I am a long term value investor.

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To each their own I guess. Long term value is a great strategy.

For what it’s worth, I’ll add fundamental analysis merely puts odds on one’s side and I don’t really subscribe to a “typical value investor” viewpoint although whatever works for y’all.

In case anyone is interested in a slightly different perspective - my view is the practical approach would be searching for fringe inefficiencies or arbitrage opportunities that may yield very high returns for low risk when portfolio < 10M - because there is only so much focus one person can put in where it will move the needle - a majority of mine is just not in finance, so it better be large enough returns to move the needle.

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A longevity Biotech take on the Bryan Johnson press: (Chris is at BioAge Labs).

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Wow! Look at his rapa dose!

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I’m pretty sure that when Bryan Johnson says on his website that his dosing is 13mg rapamycin bi-weekly, he means once every two weeks… not twice a week. the “bi-weekly” term is frequently misinterpreted and confusing.

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He’s getting press, which he seems to be happy about, but the vast majority is negative. He ends up coming off as an obsessive millionaire wasting money on a fantasy more than someone following the cutting edge of actual science.

Matt Kaeberlien’s dogs are going to be a much better poster child for rapamycin than Bryan Johnson. Everyone wants more time with their dogs, who are pure of heart and not obsessive about anything except getting up each day to be a dog to the fullest of their abilities. And if rapamycin helps dogs, it will be seen as a universally positive thing. Whereas any gains that Bryan Johnson gets from the “2 million dollar regimen” in an era where people can’t afford their prescriptions in America will be seen as a case of wealth inequality taken to the extreme and agitate people to break out the guillotines.

Dogs are way more sympathetic than tech millionaires.

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Apart from the biological markers, have you noticed any physical and mental benefit from the treatment?

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Mike - see my posting here on some other observations of my rapamycin use the past 3.5 years: How does Rapamycin make you feel? - #7 by RapAdmin

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Incidentally, people may be interested in reading Bryan Johnson’s Medium Posts:

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Saw this twitter thread tonight…

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Absolutely fascinating! Thanks for posting.

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Wow that’s a low value. He seems to be around 40 years of age, so he doesn’t look much younger than his real age.

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This is rather humorous… not to sure how many people will be adopting the Bryan Johnson diet:

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Hahaha… that was a hilarious review of the Bryan Johnson blueprint.

Bryan is 48 years old and only 5 years toward his goal of 18 years??? Huh!!

Sorry… I am almost 65 and getting 15 year returns on multiple biological tests.

My blueprint a lot easier - every other day… gym (1 hour 15 minutes), rapamycin, TRT, Acarbose and a few supplements (not 100 supplements).

He has money to burn… and suffering while attempting to live longer… not my thing.

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I’ve watched a few interviews of Bryan since he recently went viral because I wanted to get a sense of where he’s coming from. He does seems like the archetypal tech bro looking for immortality. Weirdly, he also seems to give off an uncanny valley type vibe, which is a bit unsettling. But I do believe he’s genuinely trying to do something important.

He was interviewed by Tom Bilyeu who has a massive following on Youtube. It’s interesting, there’s a lot of sense in what he’s doing, it’s just that he’s clearly slightly divorced from reality and I think that his pitch comes across as grandiose and unattainable. But I don’t think that detracts from what he’s trying to do, it’s just that he frequently wanders into philosophical notions and seems fixated on the idea that somehow Blueprint will allow him to transcend his humanity, which makes it a hard sell. On the one hand, he’s trying to build a framework to measure aging and to try to optimize himself and that is reasonable and necessary, but he comes across as completely self-serving and it’s hard at times to take him seriously.
But, all that said, I genuinely think he and his team are trying to move the science forward. Over the last few years, it does seem that we’re beginning to see pathways to materially slow and potentially reversing aging, so it’s not all that far fetched to suggest that he could actually be making progress. It makes sense to me that tracking biomarkers over multiple organs is how you would try to go about it- even if the results are questionable.
I don’t think we can assume that any improvements he’s made are solely down to Rapa. There are so many variables involved. What he’s doing is inevitable and it’s also a sign that things are moving forward, it’s just that he’s probably not a great advocate.

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Agetron, you are the standard everyone else will follow.

Bryan Johnson is getting PR/propaganda.

The facts…

Johnson big hat, no cattle.

Agetron no hat, alot of cattle!

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Hahaha… well, I hope that my cattle isn’t all BULL … :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I certainly have learned so much from RapAdmin… and the smart people on this site.

So, I am definitely benefitting from my fellow experimental guinea pigs!

Learned about Acarbose, Grapefruit juice enhancement, Coronary Calcium Scan, DEXA… and it goes on and on. Thanks All!

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