Lars Hartenstein, McKinsey Health Institute, presents: Accelerating Healthspan Science: Seven Shifts and a Cross-Sector Agenda
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This transcript features Lars, a representative from the McKinsey Health Institute (MHI), presenting at a major longevity conference. He provides a macro-level, “size of the tent” analysis of the longevity field, aimed at accelerating the transition from a niche scientific community to a mainstream global industry.
A. Executive Summary
Lars presents a critical view of the current state of longevity: while lifespan has increased since 1960, every year of life extension is currently bought at the cost of six months of poor health, a “terrible deal” for humanity. McKinsey identifies a massive gap between scientific potential and institutional investment. Currently, the total global burden of age-related disease is 600 million DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years)—one-third of the global total and 2.5 times larger than oncology.
Despite a 400% increase in biotech investment over the last decade, the field remains nascent, with investment levels 200 times smaller than oncology. Lars identifies seven key “unlocks” required to scale the industry, including standardized terminology, global data sharing, and consensus on surrogate endpoints for clinical trials. He introduces “Health Span Science” as a more palatable public health term and emphasizes that the field’s growth is currently throttled by a “talent shortage” and the lack of established regulatory pathways.
B. Bullet Summary
- The Longevity Gap: Global lifespan is rising, but healthspan is not keeping pace, creating an economic and social burden.
- Latent Demand: 60% of global consumers are “very interested” in longevity products and are willing to pay out of pocket.
- Massive Disease Burden: Age-related diseases account for 1/3 of the global disease burden, far exceeding oncology or neurology.
- Investment Disparity: Investment in longevity is currently 1/200th of oncology and 1/70th of neurological disorders.
- MHI Definition: “Health Span Science” is the pursuit of targeting the underlying process of aging through biological or medical interventions.
- Data Fragmentation: MHI calls for connecting major global datasets to study aging at a “humanity-wide” scale.
- Biomarker Consensus: The field needs a shift from diagnostic biomarkers to surrogate endpoints to enable faster, cheaper clinical trials.
- The “Nacent” Pipeline: While the pipeline shape resembles mature areas, it is 200 times smaller and lacks marketed “geroscience-approved” assets.
- Regulatory Challenges: The lack of a clear regulatory pathway for “aging” as an indication creates profound investment risk.
- Blended Finance: Lars advocates for high-net-worth “risk-accepting” capital to de-risk projects for larger blue-chip investors and Big Pharma.
- Talent Shortage: There is a critical lack of practitioners and leaders capable of practicing and managing “longevity medicine.”
- Stakeholder Agenda: MHI provides specific roadmaps for 10 different stakeholders (governments, investors, etc.) to move them “off the fence.”
D. Claims & Evidence Table (Adversarial Peer Review)
| Claim from Video | Speaker’s Evidence | Scientific Reality (Best Available Data) | Evidence Grade | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aging is 1/3 of global disease burden | McKinsey Health Institute analysis | Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies generally support that NCDs (Non-Communicable Diseases), mostly age-related, dominate global DALYs. | B (Statistical Analysis) | Strong Support |
| Longevity investment is 1/200th of Oncology | Internal McKinsey benchmarking | Generally accurate; while “Longevity” as a buzzword is high, true Geroscience-focused R&D is a fraction of the $200B+ annual oncology market. | C (Industry Analysis) | Plausible |
| 60% of consumers are interested in longevity | Global consumer survey data | Consistent with recent market research showing a $1.8T wellness market with a focus on longevity. | C (Survey) | Strong Support |
| Every year of life adds 6 months of sickness | 1960–present healthspan trends | WHO data confirms that “Healthy Life Expectancy” (HALE) has increased slower than total Life Expectancy. | B (Global Health Data) | Strong Support |
E. Actionable Insights
Top Tier (High Confidence - Level A/B Evidence)
- Standardize Terminology: Adopt the term “Health Span Science” when communicating with institutional funders or government bodies to align with public health priorities.
- Target Surrogate Endpoints: Researchers and biotech leaders should prioritize finding surrogate biomarkers that correlate with multi-morbidity to reduce the duration and cost of clinical trials.
Experimental (Risk/Reward - Level C/D Evidence)
- Blended Finance Models: Entrepreneurs should seek “blended” funding structures where philanthropic or high-net-worth capital “absorbs the first loss” to attract institutional “blue-chip” investors.
- Human-Scale Data: Support initiatives like the UK Biobank or similar global cohorts to provide the “human data” required to convince Big Pharma of target validity.
Avoid
- “Black and White” Indication focus: Avoid assuming that a drug must be labeled for “Aging” to be successful; focus on the underlying biology while using existing disease indications (e.g., metabolic or cardiovascular) as the regulatory wedge.
- Out-of-Pocket Hyper-Growth: While consumer demand is high, be wary of products that bypass scientific validation, as Lars notes this can cause “trouble” and “problematic” outcomes for the field’s reputation.
H. Technical Deep-Dive: DALYs and the Longevity Dividend
Lars focuses on DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) as the primary metric for defining the field’s value.
DALY=YLL(Years of Life Lost)+YLD(Years Lived with Disability)
- The Longevity Argument: By targeting the underlying processes of aging, a single intervention could theoretically reduce YLD across multiple diseases (diabetes, dementia, heart disease) simultaneously. This is the “Longevity Dividend.”
- The Oncology Comparison: Oncology interventions often extend life (YLL) but frequently do so in a state of high disability or side effects (YLD). Longevity science aims to compress morbidity, essentially shrinking the YLD portion of the equation relative to YLL.