It’s interesting… many of the references that that these queries point to are review papers… so you have to go down the rabbit hole of looking at each review paper and following the breadcrumb trail. It’s a pain in the ass. Unlike ChatGPT which hallucinates references quite commonly, I find that Google Gemini, when it makes a mistake, usually is just mis-identifying the link to the paper, so I have to search a bit more to find the correct link.
Part of the issue may also be that I am not just asking for a simple summary of the paper, I’m looking for actionable insights from the papers I analyze, so we have something we can actually do in response to a given paper. I don’t care about a paper if we can’t do anything with the information in any reasonable time frame.
Here is the backup for the 9 - 17% figure:
The specific research paper you are looking for is Rodriguez-Mateos et al. (2013), published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.
This study is the primary source for the 1.5% acute improvement in Flow-Mediated Dilation (FMD) and provides the basis for the calculated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction.
1. The Primary Paper (Acute FMD Improvement)
Citation: Rodriguez-Mateos, A., et al. (2013). “Intake and time dependence of blueberry flavonoid-induced improvements in vascular function: a randomized, controlled, double-blind, crossover intervention study with mechanistic insights into biological activity.” The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.
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The Findings: This study demonstrated a biphasic, dose-dependent increase in FMD.
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Result: Consumption of wild blueberry powder resulted in an acute increase in FMD, peaking at approximately 1.5% (absolute percentage points) at 1–2 hours post-consumption.
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Dose: The effect plateaued at 766 mg of total polyphenols (equivalent to ~240g or 1.5 cups of fresh wild blueberries).
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Mechanism: The study linked these improvements directly to plasma concentrations of specific anthocyanin metabolites.
Source: PubMed: Intake and time dependence of blueberry flavonoid-induced improvements in vascular function
2. The “9-17% CVD Risk Reduction” Calculation
It is critical to distinguish between direct observation and prognostic extrapolation. The Rodriguez-Mateos study did not run for decades to observe a reduction in heart attacks. Instead, the 9-17% risk reduction is a calculated projection based on the 1.5% FMD improvement.
This projection relies on established meta-analyses of endothelial function, specifically:
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Ras et al. (2013) / Inaba et al. (2010): These meta-analyses established that every 1% increase in FMD is associated with a 13% reduction (Confidence Interval typically 9%–17%) in the risk of future cardiovascular events.
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The Logic: Since wild blueberries acutely increase FMD by ~1.5%, researchers extrapolate that sustained consumption could theoretically lower CVD risk by roughly 13-19% (often summarized conservatively as ~15% or the 9-17% range depending on the specific confidence interval cited).
Source: Matsuzawa Y, et al. (2015). Prognostic Value of Flow-Mediated Vasodilation in Brachial Artery and Fingertip Artery for Cardiovascular Events: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. (Confirming the prognostic value of FMD).
3. Supporting Research (Chronic/Sustained Effects)
While the 2013 paper established the acute 1.5% spike, subsequent research confirmed that this is not just a transient effect but translates to sustained baseline improvements.
Summary of Facts
| Metric |
Finding |
Source |
| Acute FMD Increase |
~1.5% (peak at 1-2 hours) |
Rodriguez-Mateos et al. (2013) |
| Chronic FMD Increase |
0.86% - 1.0% (sustained baseline) |
Wood et al. (2023); Rodriguez-Mateos (2019) |
| CVD Risk Impact |
13% reduction per 1% FMD increase (Range 9-17%) |
Extrapolated from Ras et al. (2013) |