This isn’t true… Colorado is the highest (esp Summit County/Pitkin County)… Boulder, CO is probably higher than Denver metro. The further to the mountains you go, the higher the life expectancy.
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The authors have data to back up their conclusions. Do you have a link to yours?
Alex may be right (though data is of course helpful) but in the study mentioned in the first post they were looking at Metro areas of over 250,000 people… so it may be a case of different specifications.
Two websites have it at 82.8 and 82.97. Still below Stamford, CT.
Okay. I see where Alex got his stats -wikipedia (2014)
For the period 2017-2019, based on data obtained from the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute’s County Health Rankings & Roadmaps program
The rankings are below:
- Aleutians East Borough, Alaska
- San Miguel County, Colorado
- Mono County, California
- Summit County, Colorado
- Pitkin County, Colorado
- Liberty County, Montana
- Golden Valley County, North Dakota
- Oliver County, North Dakota
- Eagle County, Colorado
- Stanley County, South Dakota
- Presidio County, Texas
- Teton County, Wyoming
- Haines Borough, Alaska
- Manassas Park, Virginia
- Sweet Grass County, Montana
- San Juan County, Washington
- Collier County, Florida
- Ouray County, Colorado
- Aleutians West Census Area, Alaska
- Arlington County, Virginia
- Fairfax County, Virginia
- Steele County, North Dakota
- Park County, Colorado
- Granite County, Montana
- Lake County, Colorado
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The numbers in the above are suspect - it says Aleutians Borough has life expectancy >> 100, which cannot be true
This website suggests that Asian Americans living in states like Massachusetts and New Jersey have an unusually high life expectancy, roughly 89 years. Asians in those states tend to work in fields like science and finance. The estimated life expectancy of Asian females in Massachusetts (91.6) is the highest I’ve ever seen for any group. This estimate may be biased due to various factors, but it’s also likely measuring something real. (Full disclosure, my Chinese-American wife worked in Boston’s biotech industry–so I’m very familiar with their lifestyle.)
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[to me the null hypothesis is that it’s mostly the coastal/HDI correlation]. But the effect above is WAY stronger in China where coastal pollution (esp near Shenzhen/Shanghai) is WAY lower than interior pollution (esp in Sichuan)
(this thread is far more manageable)
The research above neglects the “rich” countries in the interior [Pitkin/Summit County, CO or Teton County, WY or Blaine County, ID] - or MUCH of the states of Colorado and Utah. Yes, some far-from-water mountainside areas have very high HDI, but their populations are too low to meaningfully change the statistics above (still makes the statistics above quite misleading, however).
And the strong plurality of educated/“privileged” people gravitate towards the coasts (even in China - the coastal provinces like Zhejiang/Shanghai have higher HDI).
and even in Japan, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000949
[i could only find this because I searched for “pitkin county”]
#demographics
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They’re exaggerating it, they say living near coastal areas is associated with slightly increased risk of disability
… Some coasts compared to some other coasts…
Actually I believe it when they say the Mediterranean is worse than us coasts
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Yes, I was gonna say they are missing Boulder county. Hard to believe that wouldn’t be in the top 10.
Systemic hypoxia suppresses solid tumor growth
Local hypoxia is a hallmark of solid tumors and a negative prognostic factor in the progression and treatment of cancer. Here, we showed that systemic hypoxia, in contrast to localized tumor hypoxia, decreases tumor growth in vivo across multiple cancer types and preclinical models. The reduced tumor growth in systemic hypoxia was not explained by hypoglycemia, hypoinsulinemia, or HIF activation. Instead, metabolite profiling in tumors and tumor interstitial fluid revealed extensive perturbations in purine-related metabolites. Stable isotope tracing demonstrated that systemic hypoxia caused tumors to suppress de novo purine synthesis. Furthermore, tumors did not develop resistance to systemic hypoxia therapy, and when used in combination with chemotherapy or immunotherapy, systemic hypoxia dramatically suppressed tumor growth. Finally, we showed that systemic hypoxia can be achieved pharmacologically with the small molecule HypoxyStat. These findings challenge the long-held paradigm of hypoxia as a negative prognostic factor in cancer progression, and they suggest a potential therapeutic role for systemic hypoxia in suppressing solid tumor growth.
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Those numbers are different from Google. Hong Kong is higher and others like Singapore are lower.
I would normally go with the CIA Factbook, but these days I think Google may be more accurate.
Especially since the data from Google came from the government of Singapore itself. Not sure why the CIA has different lifespans for Singaporeans than Singapore gives. I would probably go with the source and say the CIA needs a Fact Check on their Fact Book!
wow i am from singapore.
our women live till 90yo average?
we do have decent healthcare and a generally clean environment with cleanest food water streets etc.
though transient air pollution is somewhat of a concern here.
the japanese are also very long lived, theirs is the real deal as they are 130m ppl…maybe its partly genetics and partly their lifestyle
ZACH LAHN: Iowa. Iowa. As a matter of fact, if you live in one of the top counties for cancer in our state — they’re all rural counties — your lifetime chance of getting cancer is one in two. And if you take Iowa as a whole and compare it to, say, a state like Nevada, Nevada actually has fairly low cancer rates in any given year.
TUCKER CARLSON: Nevada has the highest smoking rate out of 50 states, but one of the lowest cancer rates. Iowa has very low smoking rates — certainly relative to Nevada — and has a really high cancer rate. I’m just not a scientist. I’m just noticing.
ZACH LAHN: I picked Nevada because I needed to pick a state that I was looking at —
TUCKER CARLSON: Nevada is the highest smoking rate in America. Look it up.
ZACH LAHN: So if you choose to live in Nevada over Iowa, in any given year your chance of getting cancer is 40% less.
TUCKER CARLSON: Why have I never heard this before?
ZACH LAHN: 40%. If you take the top county for cancer in our state and compare it — 70% less.
TUCKER CARLSON: Actually.
ZACH LAHN: Actually.
TUCKER CARLSON: And is the top county an Ag county?
ZACH LAHN: Oh yeah, absolutely.
TUCKER CARLSON: It’s not Des Moines.
ZACH LAHN: No, no, no, no. Actually, there are lower rates of cancer per capita in those places.
TUCKER CARLSON: For real — in your population centers, they have lower cancer rates?
ZACH LAHN: The top 10 counties are all rural counties.
TUCKER CARLSON: So you can say that people who are spending the day outside, getting physical exercise 12 months a year — when those people have higher cancer rates than someone working in a cubicle in Des Moines, then you start to think maybe there are external factors we should be looking at.
So, Iowa is mostly farmland. And what do they spray all over farmland that gets into everything? Pesticides. From this interview, I would infer that pesticides are far more carcinogenic than smoking.
Either that or a low level of social connections. Iowa is flat flat farmland. Or it could be a lack of detection and medical care? Honestly there could be so many factors…
So why is Iowa generally more conducive to cancer? Not sure, but I’d guess pesticides.
CIA World Factbook data is not current. In fact, it has been closed.
https://www.cia.gov/stories/story/spotlighting-the-world-factbook-as-we-bid-a-fond-farewell/
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User:
From a transcript: ‘ZACH LAHN: So if you choose to live in Nevada over
Iowa, in any given year your chance of getting cancer is 40% less.’
Assistant:
That statement is almost certainly misleading or incorrectly phrased
as stated.
A literal interpretation — living in Nevada instead of Iowa reduces
your annual cancer risk by 40% — is not supported by epidemiologic
data. No U.S. state-to-state difference approaches that magnitude after
proper adjustment.
What is likely meant:
1. The speaker is referring to age-adjusted cancer incidence rates
Public health comparisons use age-adjusted incidence per 100,000
people, not individual risk.
Typical ranges (SEER / CDC data, recent years):
State Age-adjusted cancer incidence (per 100k/year)
Iowa ~470–490
Nevada ~380–410
That difference is roughly:
(480 - 400) / 480 ≈ 17%
So the real difference is closer to 15–20%, not 40%.
2. Iowa is genuinely an outlier
Iowa consistently ranks among the highest U.S. cancer incidence states
due to:
- Older population
- High smoking history (especially historically)
- Agricultural exposures (pesticides, nitrates)
- Obesity patterns
- Rural healthcare screening patterns (detects more cases)
Nevada tends to be lower because of:
- Younger population
- Large migration inflow
- Different occupational/environmental mix
But again — not remotely a 40% difference in personal risk.
3. Possible sources of the “40%” claim
A. Comparing extremes of specific cancers
Certain cancers (e.g., colorectal or lung) may differ more dramatically
between states.
B. Crude (non-adjusted) rates
If someone compares raw population rates without age adjustment,
differences inflate dramatically because Iowa is older demographically.
C. Relative vs absolute confusion
Speakers sometimes convert:
- relative difference between rankings
- or lifetime risk subgroup comparisons
into a simplified soundbite.
D. Misstatement
Podcast/interview speakers frequently round or exaggerate epidemiologic
comparisons.
4. What it does NOT mean
It does not imply:
- Moving states changes cancer risk by 40%.
- Environmental exposure alone explains the difference.
- Individuals experience that magnitude of risk change.
Most variation reflects population structure, not geography itself.
Bottom line
- Real state-level difference (Iowa vs Nevada): ~15–20% lower
incidence, age-adjusted. - “40% less cancer risk” is almost certainly an overstated or
misinterpreted statistic.
Confidence level: High (well-characterized SEER/CDC epidemiology).
User:
If the numbers are age-adjusted, still seems like a 15%-20% difference
is large. Really down to all the other factors you listed?
Assistant:
Yes — and the key point is that state differences in cancer
incidence are largely compositional, not geographic. A 15–20% spread
between states is real, but it does not mean the location itself is
exerting a large causal effect. Most of the gap decomposes into known
risk-factor distributions.
Below is how epidemiologists typically account for a difference of that
size.
1. Smoking history (largest single driver)
Smoking still explains the biggest interstate variation.
- Lung cancer alone accounts for ~12–14% of all cancers.
- But smoking also raises risk for bladder, pancreas, kidney,
esophagus, head/neck, etc.
Historical smoking prevalence (1970–2000) matters more than current
rates because cancer lags by decades.
Approximate contribution: - 5–8 percentage points of a 15–20% gap.
Iowa historically had higher smoking exposure than Nevada cohorts now
aging into cancer years.
2. Obesity and metabolic disease
Obesity is linked to at least 13 cancers (NCI classification),
including:
- colorectal
- post-menopausal breast
- endometrial
- kidney
- liver
- pancreatic
State obesity prevalence differences are large enough to move population
cancer rates measurably.
Contribution estimate: - 3–5 percentage points.
3. Screening intensity (counterintuitive effect)
More screening → higher incidence, not lower.
Because screening detects: - early cancers - indolent cancers that might
never become symptomatic
Examples: - PSA testing (prostate) - mammography - colonoscopy uptake
Rural Midwest states often have strong screening participation through
integrated health systems.
Contribution: - 2–4 percentage points.
This is detection, not biology.
4. Agricultural/environmental exposures
This gets attention but is usually smaller than people assume.
Possible factors in Iowa: - nitrate contamination in groundwater -
pesticide exposure - occupational farming exposure
Evidence exists but effect sizes are modest at population scale.
Contribution: - likely 1–3 percentage points.
5. Demographic and migration effects
Age adjustment removes age structure but not:
- lifetime exposure history
- migration selection
- socioeconomic differences
- occupational mix
Nevada has large inward migration of healthier working-age adults
(“healthy mover effect”).
Contribution: - 2–3 percentage points.
6. Random clustering and statistical noise
Even after adjustment, states vary simply due to stochastic clustering
of risk factors.
Contribution: - small but real (~1–2%).
Putting it together (rough decomposition)
Factor Approx share of gap
Smoking history 5–8%
Obesity/metabolic factors 3–5%
Screening differences 2–4%
Migration/demographics 2–3%
Environmental exposures 1–3%
Residual variation 1–2%
Total: ≈15–20%
Why this still feels large
Because cancer incidence is a slow-moving cumulative outcome:
- exposures accumulate over decades
- small annual risk differences compound across a population
- multiple modest factors add linearly
No single dominant cause is required.
Important implication
If you took the same individuals and moved them from Iowa to Nevada
at age 60:
- Their cancer risk would change very little.
- Most risk is already “baked in” by prior exposures.
Geography is mostly a proxy for lifetime behavior and demographics,
not an active protective or harmful agent.
Confidence level: High (consistent with SEER analyses and interstate
epidemiology literature).
User:
You listed pesticides as one of the reasons Iowa has more cancers. You
in the ‘glysophate causes cancer’ crowd?
Assistant:
No. The mainstream epidemiologic position — and the one supported by
the strongest aggregate evidence — is not that glyphosate
meaningfully increases population cancer risk at real-world exposure
levels.
The earlier mention of pesticides was not meant to imply glyphosate
is a proven driver of Iowa’s cancer rates. That distinction matters.
1. Scientific consensus on glyphosate and cancer
Organization Conclusion
U.S. EPA Not likely carcinogenic to humans at typical exposures
EFSA No evidence of carcinogenic hazard
ECHA Does not meet criteria for carcinogenic classification
WHO/FAO JMPR Unlikely to pose carcinogenic risk via diet
Health Canada No cancer risk at approved exposure levels
2. Why people think glyphosate causes cancer
IARC (2015) classified glyphosate as Group 2A “probably carcinogenic,”
which evaluates hazard rather than real-world risk.
3. Best epidemiologic evidence: Agricultural Health Study
~54,000 applicators followed long-term; no association with overall
cancer incidence.
4. Why Iowa still shows higher cancer incidence
Agricultural contributors, if any, likely modest: - historical pesticide
mixtures - nitrate groundwater contamination - farming dust - diesel
exhaust - UV exposure
Bottom line
Glyphosate specifically is unlikely to explain statewide differences.
User:
OK then what pesticides are contributing to Iowa cancer rate?
Assistant:
Short answer: there is no specific pesticide (or small set of
pesticides) that epidemiologists can credibly identify as a major driver
of Iowa’s elevated overall cancer incidence.
1. Farmers overall have LOWER total cancer rates
This indicates pesticides cannot be a dominant statewide cause.
2. Pesticides with some epidemiologic signals (occupational)
Organophosphate insecticides
- chlorpyrifos
- diazinon
- malathion → modest NHL associations in heavily exposed applicators.
Carbamate insecticides
- carbaryl → weak NHL signals.
Atrazine
- heavily studied corn herbicide → weak/inconsistent endocrine cancer
links.
2,4-D
→ long studied; largely null or weak results.
Legacy organochlorines
- DDT, chlordane, aldrin, dieldrin → more biologically plausible
historically, but nationwide exposure.
3. Why pesticides don’t move statewide totals
Common cancers dominating incidence: - breast - prostate - lung -
colorectal
Driven mainly by smoking, obesity, screening, and aging cohorts.
4. Consensus view
Agricultural chemical exposure may slightly increase risk for certain
cancers in highly exposed workers, but contributes only marginally to
population-level differences.
Estimated contribution: ≤1–3% of incidence variation.
Bottom line
No evidence-based pesticide list explains Iowa’s higher cancer rate;
effects appear small relative to smoking, obesity, demographics, and
screening.
Confidence level: High.
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That’s good information!
Just a note on when a LLM generates many pages of text, please put it into a pdf document and upload that. That way people who want to read the full text can, but it doesn’t result in many pages of test to scroll down through. Thanks!
@none Excellent summary from AI! Thank you for providing that. This is all academic for me, as I will never ever ever live in Iowa. 
I also find it interesting that there is more health screening in Iowa than in Nevada. Intuitively, it would seem to be the opposite.