Urinary Signatures Predict Calorie Restriction-Mediated Weight Loss (BioRxiv)

It would be interesting to see how human urinary signatures of CR might compare to those of people using rapamycin…

Here’s a detailed, college-level summary of the research paper “Urinary Signatures Predict Calorie Restriction-Mediated Weight Loss in Obese Diversity Outbred Mice”:


Background

  • Obesity affects over 40% of U.S. adults and increases risk for diabetes, heart disease, and cancer.
  • Weight loss strategies such as calorie restriction (CR) (eating fewer calories while meeting nutritional needs) can help, but people respond very differently.
  • Scientists are looking for biomarkers—measurable biological signals—that can predict who will lose weight successfully on CR.
  • Urine is a promising source of biomarkers because it can be collected noninvasively and reflects metabolic changes in the body.
  • This study used Diversity Outbred (DO) mice, which are genetically varied and mimic the diversity of human populations, to test if urinary metabolites could predict CR responsiveness.

Methods

  1. Mouse Model

    • 300 DO mice (150 males, 150 females).
    • First fed a high-fat diet for 12 weeks to induce obesity.
    • Then subjected to 30% calorie restriction for 8 weeks.
  2. Group Classification

    • After CR, mice were ranked by weight change.
    • Top 25% of weight losers = CR responders.
    • Bottom 25% = CR nonresponders.
  3. Urine Analysis

    • Collected urine before CR.
    • Performed metabolomics (detailed chemical analysis) to identify metabolites (small molecules from metabolism).
  4. Data Analysis

    • Used statistical modeling (OPLS-DA, ROC curves) to identify metabolites distinguishing responders vs. nonresponders.
    • Checked which metabolic pathways these metabolites belonged to.

Key Findings

1. Urinary Metabolites Predict Weight Loss

  • All mice: Responders had higher levels of glutamic acid and hydroxyproline.

  • Males: Responders had higher glutamic acid & hydroxyproline, but lower putrescine.

  • Females: Responders had higher glutamic acid, hydroxyproline, dopamine, and lysine, but lower histamine and spermine.

  • Prediction accuracy (AUC):

    • All mice: 0.76
    • Males: 0.71 (moderate)
    • Females: 0.85 (robust)

2. Important Pathways Differed Between Groups

  • Arginine and proline metabolism (linked to energy use and collagen production).
  • Alanine, aspartate, and glutamate biosynthesis (related to insulin sensitivity and energy).
  • Histidine metabolism and glycine/serine/threonine metabolism also differed.
  • These suggest metabolic “reprogramming” in responders that may help with fat loss and insulin sensitivity.

3. Biological Significance of Key Metabolites

  • Glutamic acid: High in responders; linked to energy metabolism and liver function.
  • Hydroxyproline: Reflects collagen turnover and may signal tissue remodeling or fibrosis risk.
  • Dopamine (females only): Higher levels may affect food reward pathways and satiety.
  • Histamine: Higher in nonresponders; associated with inflammation and possible kidney stress.
  • Putrescine & Spermine: Polyamines tied to cell growth and energy metabolism; differences suggest sex-specific regulation.
  • Lysine: Elevated in female responders; may support kidney protection and energy metabolism.

Limitations

  • Did not track physical activity, hydration, or female hormone cycles—all could affect results.
  • Study was in mice; human studies are needed to confirm findings.

Conclusions

  • Urinary metabolites can serve as noninvasive predictors of weight loss success on calorie restriction.
  • A specific metabolic “signature”—especially glutamic acid and hydroxyproline—can distinguish CR responders from nonresponders.
  • Females showed stronger predictive signatures than males, suggesting sex-specific metabolic pathways are important.
  • These findings could help personalize weight loss strategies in the future, improving success rates by identifying individuals likely to benefit from calorie restriction.

:point_right: In short: The study shows that urine chemistry before dieting can predict who will lose weight on a low-calorie diet, opening the door for more personalized obesity treatments.


Full paper:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.07.18.665483v1