The data on extreme human ageing is rotten from the inside out

The secret to living to 110 was, don’t register your death.

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@jaakdefour Thanks. Of course this is true. My grandmother died at 106 after a stupid fall broke her hip. (She leaned on a door that wasn’t closed) She certainly could have lived longer. But 14 years longer to get to 120? She would have had to avoid a lot of chances to fall down.

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That is a fantastic article, jaakdefour. I got into a huge fight on another site a few years ago, for essentially pointing out exactly these issues with the whole centennarian research field, statistics and the blue zone hype. Color me deeply sceptical of all these claims. The famous Jeanne Calment 122 case is not as rock solid as one might like either. Well documented supercentenarians (those 110 and older) are vanishingly rare. Long lived populations too - the closer you look, the worse they come off. One of the go to long lived populations is Japan and they are one of the worst, based on my deep dive into the topic - terrible record systems (i.e. design), record availability (wars and destruction including natural disasters) and remarkable pension fraud levels. And people usually think that Japan data is reliable, not like Thailand - yet the truth is, Japanese data is terrible. Good, reliable data on populations is rare in the extreme - Sweden being one such unicorn.

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I was in a skilled nursing facility (SNF) in Seattle in the 90’s. SNF’s are where people go that do require a higher level of care than a “nursing home”.

All the residents were Japanese. They had a list posted at one of the nursing station of the ages and 6 were indicated to be over 100 out of about 120 residents, many more in their 90’s. I was quite amazed as I’ve been in over 200 SNF’s and never saw a list like that. I did start asking about ages as I visited other SNF’s. None came close.

From what you have posted I’m now less amazed :smile:

A response to Saul Newman’s writings from another researcher on the centenarians…

A response from Robert Young of the GRG Supercentenarian Research and Database Division

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That’s how these flame wars start. Obviously supercentenarians exist - they’re just incredibly rare. And centenarian statistics are routinely exaggerated. The BBC did an extensive investigation of pension fraud in Japan, and it was quite shocking - it’s all about the money. There’s a lot of vested inerests in maintaining supposedly big numbers in this or that population. That’s just reality - even with Jeanne Calmet: I personally am agnostic about the veracity of her claim. I’m not saying she was a fraud, but I certainly wish her case was more solid, and she’s a perfect example of a whole cadre of “researchers” and custodians of her legacy who have been making a living off of her case for decades now. Maybe she’s legit, or maybe not, I don’t know, but it’s a fact that there’s monetary inerest at stake. And how many “researchers”, book writers, commentators and journalists have made a living off of the whole “blue zone” claim? Back in the day, there were wild claims that people in some obscure regions, like the Caucasus, lived to 120, 140, 160 etc., and whole villages lived off of those wild claims and all the visitors who flocked there to learn “secrets” of extreme longevity for a fat fee. Then one day a journalist noticed that the folks in the village who were supposedly 115, just a year later were now 125 and so on, and eventually that particular hype died down, only to spring up somewhere else. Money is a powerful motivator - the richest man in China is a guy who sells water from a region that allegedly has the highest proportion of centenarians in China. The region’s claim happens to be bunk, but you know, people really want to believe that they can live to 100+++ if only they learned the secrets of the blue zone (so they buy books purporting to tell it all), or some yoghurt, or special vegetable or herbs or whatnot. It’s been going on for millenia.

The whole field needs a lot more scientific rigour. I can’t agree more that what would be best is if physicists - or biologists could come up with a method of foolproof dating of people/animals. That would cut down on a lot of nonsense and we could all focus on the science.

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It could be modern-day Californian mysticism about the ‘exotic’ regions of the Mediterranean and Pacific, it seems like the term ‘blue zones’ was coined by a literal corporation or at least by the founder: Blue Zones LLC.

My spider senses are sensing a scam. However I don’t doubt that diets low in saturated fatty acids did show an effect for slightly greater longevity, as well as higher in fruit vegetables and nuts… That has nothing to do with “blue zones” and is just modern day observational cohort studies.

The effect is probably much smaller than anyone has made it out to be.

It makes me feel better about longevity here in Hong Kong then. You can tell when someone is 90 to 100 years old because they’ll talk about their great-grandchildren. And heaven knows they look the part. :wink:

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