The Avian / Bird Flu Thread - Risk Factors, Mitigating Infection Severity

Seems like it might be a good thing to have on hand, just in case. Once a pandemic starts, this type of thing would be impossible to get.

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Tamiflu is the go-to medicine here in Asia. It was widely used during the SARS epidemic. It’s not a bad thing to have handy.

For more information from the CDC about bird flu:

Key point - No person-to-person transmission has been recorded.

68 cases in the USA with 1 death. Most on the West coast, but some scattered in the midwest.

Almost anything makes sense at 11% probability if you’re comfortable. It’s might be worthwhile anyway to have plans in the years ahead in case of man-made viruses with finetuned AI-models acting like expert that can teach an actor to create it.

It shouldn’t feel shameful to spend some $ and time on low probability (as the expected value is good), but might sometimes do so or others might perceive so on what someone does. (If the pandemic breaks out this will look genius sometimes, if it doesn’t, overreaction to some, maybe – which is weird)

Regular virus spreading:

  • Check when peak of infectious diseases happen, don’t i.e shop with large crowds during peak then as exposure guaranteed.
  • Block infectious disease infection at nose?
  • The usual stuff of focusing on great sleep, great diet, avoid inhibiting immune system before higher than usual personal peak of exposure
  • Optimal vitamin serum D, zinc, making sure no deficiencies in general

Flu pandemic:

  • As above, but not meeting people before peak and such, depending on risk of virus
  • Having some food that someone consumes regularly stocked up, so it doesn’t go to waste
  • Some water stocked up?
  • Tamiflu?
  • Repurposed drugs previously for flu infection?

Man-made pandemic:

  • Super prepping, more food at home, waiting out until virus spread is over, total lockdown at home or a specific location, super big air filter, start thinking about lockdown procedures if uncertain disease start spreading? What else?
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Smart to have it on hand. I see it’s $14 at Safeway with good rx. I’ll get this called in today.

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Still need to know about risk/reward, efficacy, safety, of it, before using.

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That is an excellent point. I just assumed because it’s been out forever that it’s reasonable.

But, having said that, I think your point is very good. I have not even had the flu in probably 15 years (no kids is the best health plan :slight_smile: !!!

My thinking was simply hoarding a box in the event the bird flu winds up morphing into something particularly bad and then not being able to get any. I can store it next to my long expired box of paxlovid.

I agree you can have it at home, but before taking it knowing those things is important, at worst you wasted $14.

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They used flu medicine against a corona virus?

From Scientific American:

The Latest on Bird Flu in Humans, Chickens, and More

Bird flu headlines include three new human cases, millions of dead birds in poultry flocks and new personnel moves from the Trump administration

HUMAN CASES

Within the past 10 days, three different states in the U.S. have reported new known and likely bird flu infections in humans: The first two are a confirmed case in a dairy worker in Nevada and a probable one in a farm worker in Ohio who had handled dead poultry. The third is a confirmed infection in an older woman from Wyoming who has been hospitalized in Colorado. The Wyoming Department of Health department has reported this person has underlying medical conditions and likely caught the virus from backyard chickens. The new reports from Nevada and Ohio bring the tally of human infections in the U.S. since 2024 to 68 confirmed cases and eight probable ones. The new case from Wyoming is not reflected in these statistics, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson confirmed.

While infections continue, so does scientific research aimed at understanding the virus and its spread. A study published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on February 13 analyzed blood samples of 150 dairy veterinarians to determine exposure. The researchers looked for antibodies to influenza viruses within a large group scientists call H5, which includes the H5N1 avian influenza virus currently dominating cases in wildlife, poultry and dairy cows. Three of the veterinarians had these antibodies. Of these three individuals, two had no known exposure to bird flu, and one has been working in a state without known dairy infections. Experts say the findings mean that existing systems for tracking avian influenza aren’t up to the task.

Full article: The Latest on Bird Flu in Humans, Chickens, and More (SciAm)

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https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/arepanrix

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Yes. They used it heavily during the original SARS outbreak in Hong Kong. It seems to help with coronaviruses.

Oseltamivir was associated with faster viral clearance and shorter MV duration without safety concerns in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

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Wow, one learns the weirdest things every day

I think Sars or maybe Mers, what are they calling it?

Is possible as well. It was responsible for the market crash:

I really hope we don’t have a bird flu pandemic in the next 4 years:

US CDC cancels science group workshop on preventing human bird flu infections

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-cdc-cancels-science-group-workshop-preventing-human-bird-flu-infections-2025-04-29/

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Bird flu vaccine research CANCELLED

Looks like the US is interested in importing our potentially infected ostriches…

This post is not to be taken politically, that is not my intent. My intent is to illustrate a potential unintended consequence.

Many countries implemented meat, seafood, and crop specific import restrictions based on various types of health safety issues over the decades. Think EU and US beef for example. We are an interdependent global economy, regardless of what some people think.

And they say they have a responsibility to follow international guidelines on how to handle infections in order to preserve Canada’s agricultural industry and public health.

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Yes, it’s consistent. The most harmful unintended consequences come from those convinced they are the smartest in the room.

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It sounds like RFK and the team have decided that the risk of an Avian / Bird flu pandemic has been overblown, and saving money is the priority. I’m sure they know more than the scientists…

21159187_0

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Seems avian flu may be becoming a bigger issue again:

New paper:

Ecology and spread of the North American H5N1 epizootic

Since late 2021, a panzootic of highly pathogenic H5N1 has devastated wild birds, agriculture and mammals. Here an analysis of 1,818 haemagglutinin sequences from wild birds, domestic birds and mammals reveals that the North American panzootic was driven by around nine introductions into the Atlantic and Pacific flyways, followed by rapid dissemination through wild, migratory birds. Transmission was primarily driven by Anseriformes, while non-canonical species acted as dead-end hosts. In contrast to the epizootic of 2015 (refs. 1,2), outbreaks in domestic birds were driven by around 46–113 independent introductions from wild birds that persisted for up to 6 months. Backyard birds were infected around 9 days earlier on average than commercial poultry, suggesting potential as early-warning signals for transmission upticks. We pinpoint wild birds as critical drivers of the epizootic, implying that enhanced surveillance in wild birds and strategies that reduce transmission at the wild–agriculture interface will be key for future tracking and outbreak prevention.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09737-x

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