I’m seeing more and more concerning news about Avian flu. I thought I’d create a thread to help us identify the key risks and also good avoidance strategies.
H5N1 is adapting to new mammalian hosts, raising the possibility of the virus spreading between humans.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00245-6
Please help by posting things that can help us avoid Avian flu, and mitigate the risks associated with infection.
Polymarket has a 11% probability now that there’s a pandemic before Aug. So it’s low but not insignificant.
The influenza virus is highly variable - the H5N1 virus now infecting cattle in the USA[a] is different from the H5N1 viruses that first showed up in poultry in 1997 and subsequently spread through wild bird populations in all continents except Australia. Scott Hensley, Professor of Microbiology at Perelman School of Medicine, has stated “If this H5 causes a pandemic, it likely is not going to be identical to whatever is circulating in cows [currently].” This means that any vaccine developed in anticipation of a human pandemic is unlikely to be an exact match to the pandemic strain.[11] However licensed vaccines can be updated in a process similar to that used for updating seasonal influenza vaccines.[12]
We’ve been exposed to bird flu here in Asia for quite some time. It’s very deadly but still rare.
One of the most common pieces of advice to avoid the flu is if you see a sick or dead bird, give it a wide berth.
You’d be surprised at how many people go out of their way to help or investigate a sick or dead bird.
Should we get some
Oseltamivir, commonly known as Tamiflu, is currently recommended by health authorities, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), for the treatment of human infections with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. This antiviral medication has demonstrated effectiveness in reducing the severity and duration of influenza symptoms when administered promptly. The CDC advises its use for both treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis in individuals who have had close contact with confirmed H5N1 cases or have been exposed to infected animals.
From chatcpt
Seems like it might be a good thing to have on hand, just in case. Once a pandemic starts, this type of thing would be impossible to get.
Tamiflu is the go-to medicine here in Asia. It was widely used during the SARS epidemic. It’s not a bad thing to have handy.
For more information from the CDC about bird flu:
Key point - No person-to-person transmission has been recorded.
68 cases in the USA with 1 death. Most on the West coast, but some scattered in the midwest.
Almost anything makes sense at 11% probability if you’re comfortable. It’s might be worthwhile anyway to have plans in the years ahead in case of man-made viruses with finetuned AI-models acting like expert that can teach an actor to create it.
It shouldn’t feel shameful to spend some $ and time on low probability (as the expected value is good), but might sometimes do so or others might perceive so on what someone does. (If the pandemic breaks out this will look genius sometimes, if it doesn’t, overreaction to some, maybe – which is weird)
Regular virus spreading:
Flu pandemic:
Man-made pandemic:
Smart to have it on hand. I see it’s $14 at Safeway with good rx. I’ll get this called in today.
Still need to know about risk/reward, efficacy, safety, of it, before using.
That is an excellent point. I just assumed because it’s been out forever that it’s reasonable.
But, having said that, I think your point is very good. I have not even had the flu in probably 15 years (no kids is the best health plan 
!!!
My thinking was simply hoarding a box in the event the bird flu winds up morphing into something particularly bad and then not being able to get any. I can store it next to my long expired box of paxlovid.
I agree you can have it at home, but before taking it knowing those things is important, at worst you wasted $14.
They used flu medicine against a corona virus?
From Scientific American:
Bird flu headlines include three new human cases, millions of dead birds in poultry flocks and new personnel moves from the Trump administration
HUMAN CASES
Within the past 10 days, three different states in the U.S. have reported new known and likely bird flu infections in humans: The first two are a confirmed case in a dairy worker in Nevada and a probable one in a farm worker in Ohio who had handled dead poultry. The third is a confirmed infection in an older woman from Wyoming who has been hospitalized in Colorado. The Wyoming Department of Health department has reported this person has underlying medical conditions and likely caught the virus from backyard chickens. The new reports from Nevada and Ohio bring the tally of human infections in the U.S. since 2024 to 68 confirmed cases and eight probable ones. The new case from Wyoming is not reflected in these statistics, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesperson confirmed.
While infections continue, so does scientific research aimed at understanding the virus and its spread. A study published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on February 13 analyzed blood samples of 150 dairy veterinarians to determine exposure. The researchers looked for antibodies to influenza viruses within a large group scientists call H5, which includes the H5N1 avian influenza virus currently dominating cases in wildlife, poultry and dairy cows. Three of the veterinarians had these antibodies. Of these three individuals, two had no known exposure to bird flu, and one has been working in a state without known dairy infections. Experts say the findings mean that existing systems for tracking avian influenza aren’t up to the task.
Full article: The Latest on Bird Flu in Humans, Chickens, and More (SciAm)
Yes. They used it heavily during the original SARS outbreak in Hong Kong. It seems to help with coronaviruses.
Oseltamivir was associated with faster viral clearance and shorter MV duration without safety concerns in critically ill COVID-19 patients.
Wow, one learns the weirdest things every day
I think Sars or maybe Mers, what are they calling it?
Is possible as well. It was responsible for the market crash:
