The actual calculator is here:
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That’s interesting. LDL was not found as relevant by the model.
Probably because it’s the population on people with established ASCVD.
Some known risk markers, such as low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lipoprotein-a, were not selected for secondary risk estimation by the model.
Here are the 16 selected factors:
They have an extended model with 24 variables but still no LDL/APOB in it:
Of note is Vit D, MCV, RDW and Lymphocytes.
Looks like their model is better than the previous ones:
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Its a bit like Morgan Levine’s formula. More linked to biological aging.
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Yes but more narrow in scope which makes it more useful. It has with the same limitations of being a linear model though.
At least they did not do the same blunder of using log(hsCRP) as Levine did.
The formulas below give the important averages and coefficients.
Computational formulas for the models
RRS16
RISK = 1 - 0.94105 ^ exp(A - 1.02437), where
A = (0.3547 x (age - 60.96) ⁄ 6.7) +
(-0.16504 x (albumin - 4.48) ⁄ 0.27) +
(0.47853 x atrial fibrillation) +
(0.12666 x (C-reactive protein - 3.09) ⁄ 5.3) +
(0.37334 x chronic kidney disease) +
(0.76959 x congestive heart failure) +
(0.79300 x current smoking) +
(0.47540 x diabetes mellitus) +
(0.09735 x (glucose - 98.02) ⁄ 33.16) +
(0.05592 x (glycated haemoglobin - 5.75) ⁄ 0.92) +
(0.19862 x history of MI) +
(0.29970 x history of PAD) +
(0.30283 x hypertension) +
(0.52926 x male sex) +
(0.10178 x (urea - 16.5) ⁄ 5.37) +
(0.09971 x years since MI ⁄ 5)
RRS24
RISK = 1 - 0.94554 ^ exp(A - 1.02125), where
A = (0.39243 x (age - 60.96) / 6.70) +
(-0.15609 x (albumin - 4.48) / 0.27) + (0.34401 x atrial fibrillation) +
(0.05229 x (C-reactive protein - 3.09) / 5.30) +
(0.24469 x chronic kidney disease) + (0.63209 x congestive heart failure) +
(0.61178 x current smoking) + (0.35607 x diabetes mellitus) +
(0.16307 x (erythrocyte distribution width - 13.70) / 1.15) +
(0.09728 x (glucose - 98.02) / 33.16) +
(0.05663 x (glycated haemoglobin - 5.75) / 0.92) +
(0.19255 x history of MI) + (0.22062 x history of PAD) +
(-0.17370 x (lymphocyte percentage - 27.25) / 7.78) +
(0.17213 x (mean sphered cell volume - 83.17) / 5.62) +
(0.34371 x overall health rating: Fair) +
(0.64314 x overall health rating: Poor) +
(0.18532 x past smoking) +
(0.47125 x male sex) +
(0.11782 x (total protein - 72.27) / 4.29) +
(0.07284 x (urea - 16.50) / 5.37) +
(-0.11831 x (vitamin D - 48.33) / 22.08) +
(0.08107 x years since MI / 5) +
(0.09715 x (WBC - 7.36) / 2.14)
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Nothing terribly surprising here.
It’s always nice to see you have a 0.7-1.4% chance of 10-year cardiovascular death. It puts a smile on my face.
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