I wanted to do a simple cost-benefit analysis on the use of Rapamycin based on my current knowledge and assumptions. Sometimes $$$ makes more of an impact on individuals than X numbers of extra life.
Assumptions (adjust as you wish):
A year of healthy life is worth $200,000 USD
A year of Rapamycin use costs $250 USD/year (3 mg + GFJ weekly)
Rapamycin side-effects cost $250 USD/year to treat
Course of Rapamycin use is 20 years for effects
Scenario 1: If Rapamycin works and gives an extra 5 years of healthy life for 20 years of use:
$200,000 * 5 years - $(250*2) * 20 years = $990,000 gain
Scenario 2: If Rapamycin doesn’t work but does not decrease life expectancy
$200,000 * 0 years - $(250*2) * 20 years = $10,000 loss
Would you pay $10,000 for an 80% chance at $990,000? I sure would.
Of course, it all depends on the odds. The ITP and the other studies (all 64+ of them) have shown an increase in healthy lifespan in model organisms almost 100% of the time. However, humans are not model organisms, so I would personally put the odds of Scenario 1 at 80% and Scenario 2 at 20%. There is Scenario 3 in which a bacterial infection or diabetes cuts short the life of an individual, but these adverse events can happen to anyone at any time. Just like getting hit by a bus.
Therefore:
$990,000 * .80 - $10,000 * .20 = $790,000 gain by taking Rapamycin.
My patients who are wanting other options and not wanting to deal directly with folks in India often go with Rapapro. It isn’t much difference in cost from what I can Rx this for as I can get it at $1.5 per mg in the US.
Since the value of something is what someone is willing to pay for it, a year of healthy could be all over the place. The average person in a 1st world country probably can’t afford 200k. Probably considerably less.
You can adjust your formula however you would like. I figured that most people who have the extra income to devote to life extension would value a year of healthy lifespan at a minimum of $200,000. Some may value it less or more.
Right, so when the healthier years start? Do you get the benefits immediately or the benefits are postponed until some later time when these benefits will need to be discounted to get npv. The discount ratio will vary among people and some stochastic approach will need to be used. Also to be conservative let’s assume normal distribution where majority of rapamycin users for longevity get no benefits with fewer getting either benefits or health issues.
I suspect that just by participating in the attempt to live longer, so long as you don’t accidentally kill yourself in your attempt …. You’ll probably gain 5-7 years just by being on this board and having a focus on things related to health.
We’ll each owe @RapAdmin the $200K/year x 5 years. I’m sure he’ll graciously accept a discounted rate.
Ah, but the benefits go both ways… I too am learning and benefiting at the rate of $200K/year so we’re all even! Thanks for your participation Dr. Fraser (and all other contributors) - I’m learning as much as anyone here.
