There are studies that remove healthy user bias. Primarily ones from Europe (I am pretty sure there is more than one) that compare groups based on birthdays.
The birthday acted as a randomization equivalent and they compared groups based on that. By memory, these were 2 different vaccines - and the modern Shingrix did better. Better meaning lower rates of AD. And that isnāt compared to nothing but just a less effective vaccine.
Now, sure, the older vaccine could have been harmful compared to no vaccine. These studies were in populations with universal health care and near 100% vaccine uptakes. And as European studies they were mostly on white people with homogenous genetics.
I have a potentially massive issue here. I believe all these studies were on dosing at around 65. Today we are dosing at 50 or lower for some lucky younger folks. When you look at the timeline of damage, we have multiple studies/opinions that show it is a lifetime effect that is accelerated in middle age.
So if you can find a difference in a 65 year old getting a shot with typical 5 year followups, that doesnāt tell you what risk reduction you get with a 30 year disease process for someone getting the shot at 50. I am not a betting man but I would take that bet that you will see more effect with 30 years of disease protection and progression.
So you can hem and haw about relative vs absolute risk reduction but realize you are likely massively underestimating the protection.
I realize no one here is not getting the shingles vaccine but we all know vaccine hesitant people. Do not underestimate the potential effect here. And then throw in the potentially synergy with all the other vaccines. And looking at NNT is just outside the realm of what the average human can compute. NNT is for epidemiologists, not for the average person.
I would take a vaccine for 1 day less in memory care or for one more day remembering my loved ones.
And donāt forget Pneumovax, dtap, flu and RSV. In medicine, I am happy to have gotten more vaccines than most and have probably 20 year streak with flu vaccines since it has been required at our forward thinking hospitals for as long as I can remember. I was influenced by the 1995 study showing less days missed for work by taking the flu shot well in excess of what the flu could account for. Theorizing that the improved immune activity prevented much more than just influenza.
This has probably been linked elsewhere but I didnāt see it in this thread. 55% risk reduction in the 2 years after high dose flu vaccine vs low dose. Are you kidding me?!? And you donāt think vaccines are helpful for preventing dementia?
https://www.neurology.org/doi/10.1212/WNL.0000000000214782