Optimal cardiovascular protection may require substantially higher physical activity volumes

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2026/05/03/bjsports-2025-111351

“A significant non-linear interaction between MVPA and CRF was observed (p<0.001). Meeting the 150 min/week guideline yielded a modest ~8%–9% risk reduction across fitness levels, whereas achieving a >30% risk reduction required threefold to fourfold higher volumes (~560–610 min/week).”

Conclusion Current MVPA guidelines provide a universal but modest safety margin, whereas optimal cardiovascular protection may require substantially higher activity volumes. The fitness-stratified prescription matrix offers quantitative behavioural targets, and genetic findings reinforce the independent importance of CRF in cardiovascular risk reduction.”

Nah, aint gonna do it.

The Absolute Numbers

From the study: 1,233 CVD events among 17,088 participants over a median 7.85 years of follow-up.

That’s a baseline cumulative incidence of roughly 7.2% over ~8 years, or an annualized rate of about 0.92% per year (~1 in 109 per year)

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