Optimal cardiovascular protection may require substantially higher physical activity volumes

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2026/05/03/bjsports-2025-111351

“A significant non-linear interaction between MVPA and CRF was observed (p<0.001). Meeting the 150 min/week guideline yielded a modest ~8%–9% risk reduction across fitness levels, whereas achieving a >30% risk reduction required threefold to fourfold higher volumes (~560–610 min/week).”

Conclusion Current MVPA guidelines provide a universal but modest safety margin, whereas optimal cardiovascular protection may require substantially higher activity volumes. The fitness-stratified prescription matrix offers quantitative behavioural targets, and genetic findings reinforce the independent importance of CRF in cardiovascular risk reduction.”

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Nah, aint gonna do it.

The Absolute Numbers

From the study: 1,233 CVD events among 17,088 participants over a median 7.85 years of follow-up.

That’s a baseline cumulative incidence of roughly 7.2% over ~8 years, or an annualized rate of about 0.92% per year (~1 in 109 per year)

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Agree. Open mind but doesn’t pass the smell test. Sounds like variance isolation. Needs a close examination.

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Exactly. While a 30% relative risk reduction sounds incredibly appealing, the absolute risk of actually getting sick merely drops from 0.92% to 0.64%.

This study’s conclusions seem correct to me.

I finally took a look at it. The takeaway that the curve may not flatten so quickly is a useful perspective for further research but it is lacking a larger functional context. I take issue ranging from considerable to minor on some detail:

  • Accelerometer MVPA is not equivalent to guideline MVPA. These are different yardsticks.
  • The 8–9% benefit at 150 min contradicts established meta-analyses. TBD with subsequent research.
  • UK Biobank sample is selected three layers above the general population. That contaminates much.
  • Mendelian randomization is underpowered and likely overlapping samples.
  • The outcome is dominated by 71% AFIB which is not “heart attacks and strokes.”
  • The personalizing headline results are underwhelming (this is a bigger discussion).
  • Reverse causation from subclinical disease is not adequately ruled out.
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