https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2026/05/03/bjsports-2025-111351
“A significant non-linear interaction between MVPA and CRF was observed (p<0.001). Meeting the 150 min/week guideline yielded a modest ~8%–9% risk reduction across fitness levels, whereas achieving a >30% risk reduction required threefold to fourfold higher volumes (~560–610 min/week).”
“Conclusion Current MVPA guidelines provide a universal but modest safety margin, whereas optimal cardiovascular protection may require substantially higher activity volumes. The fitness-stratified prescription matrix offers quantitative behavioural targets, and genetic findings reinforce the independent importance of CRF in cardiovascular risk reduction.”