Life Expectancy in the USA (Bad and Getting Worse)

The population collapse panic is overdone as usual. Lower population numbers are not necessarily an automatic economic negative. GDP and wealth can continue to go up, even as the population numbers go down, so there is more wealth per capita. The graying of the population is a bigger challenge with more retirees per workers in the economy. But! As I continue to rail against straight line projections, the doomsayers are wrong again.

We live in a dynamic system. Any strong movement in one direction is liable to produce a countervailing movement changing the overall trajectory. Technology is progressing. Productivity is going up - or will accelerate - to more than cover the worker deficit and the graying of the populace won’t matter nearly as much to the economy. It will continue to grow, or if not, at least wealth per capita will. Robots, AI, and labor automation and industrialization means even elder care can be solved without increasing the number of workers per retired. As Japan is discovering, importing workers is only one - unimaginative old school - lever, and you can use other levers instead and instead of declining, you transition to a new economy that continues to serve the population better.

Mr. Malthus, please go back to your usual position in the corner and adjust your clown hat.

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Couldn’t agree more!

Alas,

If only you had been President Autopen’s immigration czar.

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Um, I actually think targeted high quality culturally compatible immigration is a huge boon. That’s what fueled America’s scientific and technological dominance. We scooped up the best and brightest minds from culturally compatible places when Europe and other places decided to get rid of their Jewish, Russian, Chinese or other bright energetic people. Their own goal, our gain. Now we are doing the own goals. Getting rid of the best and brightest, and promoting the dumb ignorant and useless, while closing the door on top talent from elsewhere, talk about reverse meritocracy. I do not think that’s a path to economic, scientific or any other kind of success, BWDIK.

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Couldn’t agree more!

Alas, if only you had been President Autopen’s immigration czar.

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