I am virtually clueless.
My WAG is 25k.
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A few ten thousend in the US, a few thousend in Europe. It’s not exactly an unknown drug in the longevity and looksmaxxing scene and I’m sure a few public figures/actors who “don’t seem to age” are on it.
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Can we find data on sirolimus sales and prescriptions? We should then be able to see the # taking it off-label (but we cannot account for all people buying from India). My guess would be max 10k people globally who’ve been taking it for at least 12 months and are still taking it.
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Here is how I estimate the total:
The better way I think to estimate users is to work from the bottom up - from the doctors, then extrapolate from there:
Dr. Green says he has 1400+ patients (on his website), but how many still on rapamycin? What is his “drop out” rate? 20% to 30%? Over 5 years or 6 years it might be higher, perhaps 30% to 50%
Other doctors and practices prescribing rapamycin:
Approx. 25 doctors/practices prescribing rapamycin, for an average time of 1 to 2 years
25*150 = 3000 patients (if the average of the 20 doctors has been prescribing for 1 year) (to 6000 if they’ve been prescribing for 2 years). Most of the doctor’s we’ve identified on our list have been there for two years, so a total of perhaps 6,000 people.
Online Providers: Healthspan and AgelessRX (Really hard to estimate their numbers)… perhaps a few thousand customers between the two of them: Add 2,000, to 3,000 people
I’m sure I’ve missed doctors who are prescribing - so if I’ve missed 10 lower visibility
practices, probably they have fewer patients - say 25 to 50 patients per year
10*25 = 250 to 500 people per year for 2 years, so add another 500 to 1,000 people.
Total for USA rapamycin users with prescriptions via doctors:
1400 (dr. Green)
6000 (all other doctors I have listed on rapamycin news)
500 (other US doctors)
Total: 8000
Subtract 30% for dropouts, for a new total of: 5,600
Online providers: 2,000 to 3,000
From my survey, we can estimate that approximately 50% of rapamycin users are biohackers doing it without prescriptions Poll: How do you get your Rapamycin: Doctor Prescription, or Just Buy It?
so this suggests another 5000 or so people who are biohackers getting their prescriptions directly from off-shore vendors.
So - Total of 10,000 to 15,000 people so far would seem to have tried rapamycin
Not sure of the dropout rate - but I’m suspect at least 20% to 30% have dropped out as is common with all medications. If the dropout rate is every year, then its even lower.
But we also have a feeling for the growth rate of users, based on our 2022 survey of people using rapamycin, and how long they have been using it (at that time). Most people had adopted it in the past year (in 2022), and so you can look at that increase in people trying rapamycin as a “growth rate”. User numbers seem to have gone up by 400% or more in 2022, and I’m sure its still growing fast given the coverage of the Longevity field. Rapamycin User Survey #2 - Please Respond
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Good calculation. What about the visits to this website? How many members? And among members how many said in their profile that they use rapa?
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We’re currently getting typically around 15,000 to 25,000 visitors a month (unique visitors). Registered members (in the forum) are at 3,500 right now.
Unfortunately I don’t have an easy way to parse the data from the user profiles… so I don’t know.
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I’d guess that at least 1% of regular rapa users are registered here so at most 35k regular rapa users in the world.
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