Ha, I think Astaxanthin is still a good longevity model. Rationale:
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It showed a significant positive effect in the previous ITP. The given dose was 4,000ppm [big caveat here. More about this later]. Resulting in a 12% median lifespan increase in males, P = 0.003.
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This new result (failure) was at a much lower dose of 800ppm.
Now, when we look at the dose, 800ppm in the mouse food is equivalent to around 600mg per day for an adult human, and 4,000ppm is equivalent to 2,800mg per day. Obviously SUPER high doses, impossible for a human to take.
However, we have to bear in mind several things:
- The mouse absorption sucks. Astaxanthin is fat soluble, and mice eat dry pellets of mostly carbs.
- Mice metabolise astaxanthin much quicker than humans do
- Most importantly, look at the supplemental data, Tables S4 and S5
In the 800ppm group, the mouse mean plasma concentration reached 20ng/ml, measured in the study.
In humans, there are several studies looking at the dose and plasma concentrations:
- 8mg/d in humans = 112ng/ml in plasma (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e417/dd0e808a8b73aab85bf5f0fe6bf9abe92aaf.pdf)
- 12mg/d in humans = 210ng/ml (Astaxanthin Pharmacokinetics – Cellbone)
- 2mg/d in humans = 60ng/ml
Note that even 2mg/d in humans gives a plasma concentration 3x higher than the mice in the 800ppm ITP study.
So basically, this failure doesn’t bother me at all. The mice were actually getting a human equivalent dose of something like 0.7mg per day.
In the ITP study which found lifespan extension, the mice plasma levels should be around 45-90ng/ml, which is similar to a human taking ~3-6mg per day. (However, they did not report it in the paper, so I’m making an assumption of linear dose:absorption here).
The ITP isn’t perfect. If you look at the numbers, the sample sizes would allow them to detect a 10% lifespan with 80% power. They also frequently run into trouble with formulations and absorption issues. For example, in the 4,000ppm run, the actual concentration turned out to be only 1840ppm. (Hence me giving ranges of 3-6mg/d or 45-90ng/ml).
They also have site to site inconsistencies, which was especially bad in this run. And finally, they’ve had false positives before (like Aspirin, which was 8% increase, P = 0.07). However, the first Astaxanthin trial was a 12% increase and a much lower P value of 0.003, giving me a lot more confidence.
Bigger picture, Astaxanthin ticks a lot of boxes. Antioxidant, yes, but also Nrf2 activator, NF-kB inhibitor, promotes autophagy, suppresses mTOR, lowers CRP and increases NK cell activity (Astaxanthin decreased oxidative stress and inflammation and enhanced immune response in humans - PMC) and a review here summarises a ton of anti-cancer studies: (Redirecting). More than 50 human clinical trials, and no documented adverse effects.
Personally, I take 12mg per day.