Long-term resistance training with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: assessing dose-response and joint associations with aerobic physical activity (paper 2nd June 26)

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/bjsports/early/2026/05/28/bjsports-2025-110503.full.pdf

chatGPT:

Summary

This paper examines whether long-term resistance training is associated with lower mortality, and how its effects interact with aerobic exercise. It uses three large US prospective cohorts: Health Professionals Follow-up Study, Nurses’ Health Study, and Nurses’ Health Study II, giving 147,374 participants, 35,798 deaths, and up to 30 years of follow-up. Resistance training and aerobic activity were repeatedly assessed by questionnaire, rather than only once at baseline.

The main finding is that moderate resistance training is associated with lower all-cause mortality, even after adjustment for aerobic activity. The apparent optimum for all-cause mortality was around 90–119 minutes/week, associated with 13% lower all-cause mortality compared with no resistance training. Higher levels, ≥120 min/week, did not add further benefit.

Cause-specific results differed. The 90–119 min/week group had 19% lower cardiovascular mortality and 27% lower neurological disease mortality. Cancer mortality was different: lower risk appeared only at 1–59 min/week, with no clear benefit at higher resistance-training volumes.

The joint analysis is important. Aerobic activity had the stronger association with lower mortality. Resistance training alone gave modest benefit, while the lowest mortality was seen in those doing both substantial aerobic activity and resistance training. For example, those doing 30 to <45 MET-hours/week aerobic activity plus 60–119 min/week resistance training had an HR of 0.55 versus people with inadequate aerobic activity and no resistance training. But at very high aerobic activity, ≥45 MET-hours/week, resistance training added little extra apparent mortality benefit.

What is novel?

The novelty is not simply “exercise lowers mortality.” The useful additions are:

First, it looks at resistance training duration, not merely frequency such as “twice per week.” The authors note that prior work often used dichotomised frequency measures and single baseline exposure, limiting dose-response inference.

Second, it uses repeated measures over time, creating cumulative averages of resistance training and aerobic activity. This is stronger than a one-off baseline questionnaire because it better approximates long-term behaviour and reduces measurement error.

Third, it explicitly separates all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer, respiratory, neurological and other mortality, showing that the dose-response curves may not be the same for different outcomes. The neurological mortality result is particularly interesting because this outcome has been less well studied for resistance training.

Fourth, it provides a detailed joint resistance-training/aerobic-activity matrix, rather than asking whether resistance training is “independent” in a simplistic way. This shows that aerobic activity appears dominant for mortality reduction, while resistance training adds benefit mainly below very high aerobic activity.

Critique

This is a strong observational study, but it should not be read as proving that exactly 90–119 minutes/week of resistance training is biologically optimal. People who do resistance training differ systematically from those who do not. In Table 1, higher resistance-training groups were leaner, smoked less, had healthier diets and did more aerobic activity. The authors adjust for these factors, but residual “healthy user” confounding is still likely.

The exposure measure is also crude. “Resistance training minutes/week” does not distinguish load, intensity, proximity to failure, muscle groups, progression, frailty-adapted training, supervised versus unsupervised training, or whether someone is doing heavy compound lifting versus light machine circuits. A minute of resistance training is not physiologically equivalent across people.

The apparent lack of added benefit above 120 min/week may be real, but it could also reflect confounding or exposure misclassification. People doing very high resistance-training volumes may include mixed groups: very healthy exercisers, people training for sport, people compensating for illness or weight concerns, or people with higher injury burden. The study cannot fully separate these.

The cancer finding is the most puzzling. The lower cancer mortality only at 1–59 min/week, not at higher levels, could suggest a genuine J-shaped relationship, but it may also be chance, residual confounding, cancer-site heterogeneity, or survivorship effects. The authors mention possible mechanisms such as IGF-1, but the paper does not directly measure mediators, so mechanistic interpretation should be cautious.

Generalisation is limited. The cohorts are mostly health professionals, predominantly white, and generally health-literate. The authors themselves acknowledge that the cohorts were established before diversity was a major recruitment consideration.

Bottom line

The paper supports the practical view that doing some resistance training is associated with lower mortality, with a plausible useful range around 1–2 hours/week, and that combining it with aerobic activity is better than doing neither. However, the strongest mortality signal remains aerobic activity, and the paper should not be interpreted as showing that more than 120 minutes/week of resistance training is harmful or useless. It shows a plateau in observational mortality associations, not a definitive biological ceiling.

7 Likes

This is roughly aligned with the findings of another recent study: Physical activity types, variety, and mortality: results from two prospective cohort studies - #3 by adssx

3 Likes

Very interesting article, and the HArvard Chen school is renowned for its epidemiological studies. This one has in common with NANHES the high numerosity of the cohort and the long timespan.
Very significant from the point of view of the average response, but our individual judgments should be modulated by the inherent uncertainty and variability of the data (for example, the error bands in figure 2).

What’s great is that so many benefits kick in with very minimal effort. 90 minutes per week is just trivial. Looking at the data in the paper, a sizeable majority of people are just doing absolutely nothing. So if they all just did like 30 minutes 3x per week, there would be huge benefits overall.

However, one important thing is that while resistance training was very good, the combination with aerobic exercise is phenomenal. So really, everybody needs to do both. The longevity gains from the resistance training alone maxed out pretty quickly, whereas the aerobic gains keep going. So the headline is a bit misleading IMO.

Statistical noise IMO. There are only a handful of cases in the top two min/week categories. 60–90 min/week has 361 deaths, HR of 1.00, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.11 (i.e. anywhere from 11% decrease to 11% increase.) If you look at 90-120 min/week, there are only 171 deaths (out of 4561 total, 3.7%) and the HR is 0.98 with a massive range of confidence limits (0.83 to 1.14, or a 17% decrease to a 14% increase). That’s simply due to the low sample size in that group. So even if there was a strong 10% reduction in real life, you simply could not detect it based on this sample size. You’re looking at outliers - people who keenly exercise and die of cancer - in a study where the overwhelming majority of people did very little exercise

4 Likes

I think this has been shown repeatedly: the biggest risk reduction for morbidity and mortality is with the first quartile of physical activity - basically avoiding sedentary behaviour. You tend to flatten out the benefits pretty fast. If you enjoy exercise, then this makes no difference, exercise as much as you want, regardless of benefits or harm, since life is there to be enjoyed. However, if you don’t enjoy it (moi!), you can calculate where the benefits drastically drop off (or accumulate asymptotically), and do just that much and not feel like you are missing much if anything healthwise. And keep in mind, you are reducing your mortality and morbidity risk, not extending the lifespan your particular genetic profile set a limit to (which is different for everybody); in other words, exercise raises the odds that you will reach your particular max healthspan and lifespan, which is nothing to sneeze at. But extending beyond your genetics is a huge challenge - and the purported purpose of this website - and at present can likely be only very slightly affected (at best!) by a good drug combo; for real progress we’ll have to wait for genetic engineering and redesign.

3 Likes

At one point I actually tried to calculate this, based on available data. Here: Thought experiment: The economics/ROI of longevity efforts

A solid recommendation for exercise is 150 mins/week, which is 18.571 days per year, or 5.1% of each year spent exercising (not including preparation, travel time etc). So, by the crudest metric, exercise needs to extends lifespan by 5.1% just to break even on the time you spent doing it. Or, it needs to provide benefits in terms of healthspan and quality of life that are worth spending 5.1% of your time.

and (edited for clarity from the original post)

A more realistic number [for benefits of regular exercise] is +4 years. So, 30 minutes per day = 10,950 mins per year = 182 hours = 7.6 days per year, or ~2.1% of each year. On a 40 year horizon (let’s say from age 40 to 80), that’s around 7,200 hours spent, and you gain 35,000 hours (4 years). That would be a 4.9-fold ROI on the time spent, which would be very good.

150 minutes per week is really very little. If you can afford 3x 30 minute cardio sessions and 2x 30 minute resistance training sessions per week, you’re doing extremely well IMO. And based on these numbers, if you hate exercise, you can probably get a significant chunk of the ROI from only 2x cardio and 1x resistance training sessions per week.

1 Like

Simply walking quickly when you are going about your daily tasks provides a form of additional challenge with no real time consequences (even a time benefit).

1 Like